G20 signals Ukraine war may end without military victory
Assuming the helm of the G20 with a united stance on Ukraine, Brazil aims to redirect the conversation away from the conflict that has monopolized the group’s attention since the war erupted. The goal is to center discussions on three key issues that will shape Brazil’s presidency of the bloc: social justice, sustainable development, and global governance reform. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva expressed this position clearly in his concluding remarks at the summit and in a subsequent interview with CNN India on Saturday.Yet the ramifications of this newfound consensus reach beyond the semantics of a diplomatic statement that cautiously speaks of the war "in" Ukraine, not "against" Ukraine. According to Brazilian negotiators, the same war-weariness that facilitated agreement among G20 members could also set the stage for ending the conflict.While setbacks could emerge due to public sentiment and Volodymyr Zelensky’s maneuvers, Celso Amorim, Mr. Lula’s leading foreign policy advisor, believes Ukraine can no longer realistically count on unwavering Western backing for the conflict."The G20’s move dampens Western aspirations for a decisive military triumph. Pursuing such a victory at all costs would severely strain the cohesion of a multi-ethnic nation like Russia, armed with 1,500 nuclear warheads," he stated.Mr. Amorim was in lockstep with President Lula throughout the summit, present at nearly every bilateral meeting. Yet he takes pains to clarify that he’s not speaking on behalf of the Brazilian government or its Foreign Ministry, known as Itamaraty. However, his insights into what drove the G20 to reach a consensus align with the views of Brazil’s key negotiators. This begins with acknowledging the influence the expansion of the BRICS had on the G20’s outcomes.Previously, Brazilian diplomacy was cautious about the growth of the BRICS, but it has now come to the conclusion that the momentum spurred by China was a pivotal factor in steering the West toward a more neutral stance on the war within the G20 framework. "The emergence of this secondary coalition, in which China is the dominant force, was a game-changer in the G20 deliberations," Mr. Amorim remarked.Once a skeptic about the bloc’s enduring relevance, the former Brazilian Foreign Minister now perceives a renewed vitality in the G20—evident not just in the nuanced language of its final declaration, which condemns war without explicitly calling out Russia, but also in symbolic...
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