Guerra da Ucrânia traz riscos adicionais à estabilidade financeira global, diz FMI
A guerra da Ucrânia complica os esforços para conter a inflação globalmente e esse cenário faz crescer os riscos à estabilidade financeira, afirma o diretor do departamento monetário e de mercado de capitais do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI), Tobias Adrian, em análise para o blog da instituição. Segundo o especialista, “embora nenhum evento sistêmico tenha se materializado, o equilíbrio de riscos pendeu mais firmemente para o lado da desvantagem”.
De acordo com o economista, “a invasão da Ucrânia pela Rússia aumenta os riscos à estabilidade financeira para o mundo e levanta questões sobre o impacto a longo prazo nas economias e nos mercados”.
O diretor do FMI pondera que a guerra tem atrasado a recuperação econômica da pandemia e “deve testar a resiliência dos mercados e representa uma ameaça à estabilidade financeira”.
Adrian ressalta que “já está claro que a gravidade de interrupções nos mercados de commodities e nas cadeias de suprimentos estão criando riscos negativos pesando negativamente sobre a estabilidade macrofinanceira, a inflação e a economia global”.
O principal conselheiro de finanças do fundo pondera que “em meio à alta da inflação, a expectativa aumentos das taxas de juros levaram a um aperto [das condições financeiras] notável nas economias avançadas nas semanas após a invasão russa na Ucrânia”.
Muitos bancos centrais podem ter que ir mais longe e mais rápido do que o estimado atualmente pelos mercados para conter a inflação, alerta Adrian. “Isso poderia trazer as taxas de política acima dos níveis neutros.”
Conforme o economista, um nível “neutro” é aquele em que a política monetária não é nem acomodatícia nem restritiva e é consistente com a economia mantendo o pleno emprego e inflação estável.
“A nova realidade geopolítica complica o trabalho dos bancos centrais, que já enfrentavam delicado equilíbrio com inflação teimosamente alta”, aponta. Os BCs “devem trazer a inflação de volta para a meta, consciente de que o aperto excessivo das condições financeiras globais prejudica a economia crescimento”.
Na avaliação do diretor do FMI, com riscos à estabilidade financeira mais elevados, “qualquer súbita reavaliação e reprecificação do risco...
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