Ibre/FGV e Itaú fazem nova revisão e esperam tombo de até 3,4% no PIB
Com mais dados, economistas enxergam maior impacto das medidas contra a pandemia na atividade e alertam para o risco de piora no cenário de 2020 O Instituto Brasileiro de Economia da Fundação Getulio Vargas (Ibre/FGV) e o Itaú Unibanco divulgaram nesta terça-feira novas projeções para a economia brasileira que indicam um tombo maior do PIB em 2020.
A estimativa do Ibre/FGV passou de uma queda de 0,9% para uma retração de 3,4% na atividade neste ano.
Indicadores de emprego devem se deteriorar mais em abril, diz FGV
Segundo Luana Mirana, economista do instituto, a previsão anterior, divulgada há duas semanas, estava "calibrada" pelo Indice de Condições Financeiras (ICF), único dado disponível até então. A expectativa de então era de uma retração de 0,9%.
"Agora incorporamos sondagens especiais sobre o coronavírus, com respostas das empresas, e o cenário do mercado de trabalho em outros países, como China, Estados Unidos e países da Europa", disse ela.
Para o primeiro trimestre, o Ibre/FGV mantém, por ora, a previsão de queda de 0,1% do PIB na comparação ao quarto trimestre do ano passado. Esse número será revisto, contudo, após a divulgação dos números do setor de serviços pelo IBGE.
Comércio do centro de São Paulo vazio por causa da pandemia de coronavírus
Rovena Rosa/Agência Brasil
Na avaliação do Itaú Unibanco, os efeitos mais intensos do que o esperado da pandemia do novo coronavírus, em especial na primeira metade do ano, devem fazer com que PIB apresente uma retração de 2,5% neste ano. Os economistas do banco um crescimento de 4,7% em 2021. Antes, eles...
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