IGP-10 mais fraco em março não contempla impacto da guerra na Ucrânia, diz FGV
A inflação apurada pelo Indice Geral de Preços – 10 (IGP-10) da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) desacelerou de 1,98% em fevereiro para 1,18% em março, menor taxa do ano e a mais reduzida desde dezembro de 2021 (-0,14%). Mas o indicador, favorecido por recuos, no atacado, em itens de peso na formação da inflação atacadista como minério de ferro (-2,57%), não representa mais a realidade atual da inflação, admitiu Matheus Peçanha, economista da Fundação. Isso porque o índice, normalmente usado como antecipador de como será a evolução dos indicadores da família dos Indices Gerais de Preços (IGPs) no mês, não contempla os impactos recentes, nos preços domésticos, da guerra entre Rússia e Ucrânia, admitiu.
Com disparada de preços em commodities no exterior, o conflito no Leste Europeu conduziu a recentes aumentos de combustíveis, promovidos pela Petrobras esse mês, e em commodities mais caras, como o trigo, por exemplo. Peçanha explicou que a coleta de preços do IGP-10 do mês, anunciado hoje pela fundação, vai até o dia 10 de março, mesmo dia em que a Petrobras anunciou aumentos, nas refinarias, nos preços de gasolina (18,7%); diesel (24,9%) e GLP (16%). A empresa foi influenciada por mudança em patamar de barril de petróleo, que agora se situa na faixa dos US$ 100, com a guerra entre russos e ucranianos. A Rússia é grande produtor mundial de petróleo, e o embate gera incertezas em relação à oferta de petróleo global, o que acaba elevando a cotação do petróleo no exterior. Além disso, a região é produtora de grãos importantes para a formação da inflação brasileira, como trigo, por exemplo.
Assim, os preços no atacado dentro do IGP-10, representados pelo Indice de Preços ao Produtor Amplo (IPA), 60% do indicador total, diminuiu de 2,51% para 1,44% entre fevereiro e março – mas...
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