IGP-M pode fechar 2020 acima de 25%, na maior alta do Plano Real, diz FGV
O Indice Geral de Preços - Mercado (IGP-M), usado para cálculo de reajustes em contratos de aluguel, caminha para encerrar este ano com a maior taxa anual desde o início do Plano Real. O alerta partiu do economista da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) André Braz ao comentar o IGP-M de novembro, que acelerou para 3,28%, ante 3,23% em outubro, pressionado pela continuidade de commodities mais caras no atacado.
Com a elevação mais intensa, o IGP-M acumula altas de 21,97% no ano e de 24,52% em 12 meses até novembro - sendo que a maior taxa anual do índice, desde 1994, é a de 2002, de 25,30%. Como não há sinais de arrefecimento de altas em preços de commodities atacadistas, fenômeno que persiste ao longo dos últimos meses em meio à pandemia, Braz observou que "nada indica" um IGP-M mensal de dezembro abaixo de 2%. Para ele, o mais provável é que a taxa do último mês do ano fique novamente acima de 3%, superior à de dezembro de 2019 (2,09%).
Ao detalhar a evolução do IGP-M de novembro para dezembro, o especialista comentou que, no atacado, 60% do indicador, o Indice de Preços ao Produtor Amplo (IPA-M) subiu de 4,15% para 4,26%. Das cinco principais elevações observadas no IPA-M em novembro, quatro são commodities. É o caso de soja em grão (11,91%), milho em grão (21,85%), farelo de soja (21,26%) e bovinos (7,40%).
Na prática, as commodities passam por movimento de alta de preços em dólar, influenciado por maior procura da Ásia, afirmou ele. A China, nos últimos meses, tem ensaiado retomada na atividade após o forte choque na economia no início do ano, devido à pandemia. Isso eleva a demanda por produtos brasileiros como soja, por exemplo - justamente os de maior peso na formação do IPA, lembrou ele.
"Continuamos a ter desvalorização do real frente ao dólar, mas se olharmos a taxa de câmbio média, nos períodos de coleta do IGP-M de outubro e do IGP-M de novembro, o dólar ficou em R$ 5,58 em outubro, e em R$ 5,53 em novembro", afirmou. "Então, o que temos no momento é mais o aumento do preço em dólar desses produtos, com demanda maior do que oferta, que estão deixando-os mais caros nos IGPs", concluiu.
O cenário atual no atacado, com aumento de...
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