IGPs devem voltar a acelerar com perspectiva de dólar alto, diz FGV
A primeira prévia do Indice Geral de Preços - Mercado (IGP-M) de novembro sinaliza fim de deflação para a família dos Indices Gerais de Preços (IGPs), com taxas positivas para os indicadores desse tipo – mas inferiores a 1%.
A análise é do economista André Braz, da própria Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), que calcula o indicador, ao comentar a evolução da primeira prévia do IGP-M, que passou de 0,68% para 0,08% entre outubro e novembro. Ele avalia que, embora tenha ocorrido desaceleração no indicador, esse movimento não deve prosseguir. O IGP-M do mês fechado deve ficar acima de 0,08%, disse.
Pressões, como dólar em alta elevando preços de commodities e provável energia elétrica mais cara, devem impulsionar o indicador. Mas o índice não tem fôlego para ultrapassar 1%, ele ressalta.
O economista avalia que, na passagem entre a primeira prévia de outubro e igual prévia em novembro, houve uma mudança de trajetória no preço do minério de ferro no atacado, que passou de alta de 3,05% para queda de 10,29%.
“Houve um efeito cambial positivo e demanda um pouco menos intensa da China”, disse Braz, lembrando que isso acabou por ajudar na desaceleração da inflação atacadista, apurada pelo Indice de Preços ao Produtor Amplo (IPA), que representa 60% do IGP-M e que passou de 1,02% para 0,9%.
No IPA, também contribuiu o recuo em preços de combustíveis, devido a reajustes recentes promovidos pela Petrobras. Somente a variação no preço do diesel saiu de alta de 7,04%...
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