Para IIF, mudança no teto não é fim de disciplina fiscal no curto prazo
A possível mudança da regra do teto de gastos para permitir o aumento do valor do benefício pago programa que substituirá o Bolsa Família, além de acomodar outras despesas que o governo federal pretende fazer em 2022, não significa, necessariamente, uma perda total da disciplina fiscal, segundo o Instituto de Finanças Internacionais (IIF, na sigla em inglês).
Em relatório assinado pelo vice-economista-chefe da IIF Sergi Lanau, o chefe de pesquisa do instituto na América Latina, Martin Castellano, e a chefe de pesquisa em fronteira para a região, María Paola Figueroa, a avaliação sobre o quadro fiscal brasileiro é mais benigna do que mostra o consenso.
“O Brasil já fez muitos ajustes neste ano. Os gastos estão abaixo dos níveis pré-crise e permanecerão assim no próximo ano, mesmo que a regra fiscal seja violada. Em contraste, muitos mercados emergentes não estão se planejando para voltar aos gastos pré-crise em 2022”, escrevem.
Para os especialistas, o ponto de partida para o Brasil é obviamente mais fraco, mas a direção da trajetória fiscal é positiva. Assim como foi neste ano, a leitura do IIF é que o orçamento para 2022 vai atingir um equilíbrio entre a política e os cortes que o “mercado verá como aceitável”.
No entanto, prossegue o IIF, cumprir a regra fiscal será uma luta nos próximos anos. A restrição exigirá cortes de gastos contínuos que, embora não sejam sem precedentes, impõem desafios para o crescimento econômico e para o ambiente político no Brasil.
Os analistas descrevem que o Brasil gastou 7% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) no ano passado para combater os efeitos da covid-19, desviando-se...
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