Indicador antecedente de emprego ainda está muito aquém da pré-pandemia, diz FGV
Com alguma reação da atividade econômica, que favoreceu o aumento da população ocupada, o Indicador Antecedente de Emprego (IAEmp) teve a segunda alta seguida e passou de 79,5 pontos abril para 80,9 pontos em maio. É o maior patamar desde dezembro de 2021 (81,8 pontos), após uma sequência de quatro quedas e uma estabilidade.
No médio e no longo prazo, no entanto, é preciso cautela porque não se vê sustentabilidade desse movimento e o patamar está ainda muito aquém do observado antes da pandemia. A avaliação é do pesquisador e economista Rodolpho Tobler, responsável pelo índice do Instituto Brasileiro de Economia da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV Ibre).
“É a segunda alta seguida do indicador e essa tendência favorável sugere que tem uma melhora do mercado de trabalho, muito em resposta à atividade econômica. Na virada do primeiro para o segundo trimestre, teve algum aquecimento de atividade não só de serviços, mas também alguma reação de indústria e comércio”, afirma o economista.
Ele acrescenta um olhar de cautela para o desempenho do índice nos próximos meses. “O que a gente pondera é que o indicador ainda está em patamar muito baixo e a grande questão é a sustentação desse resultado. Não se consegue olhar como sendo muito sustentável a médio e longo prazo essa trajetória positiva nesses meses agora.”
O Indicador Antecedente de Emprego (IAEmp) subiu de abril a agosto de 2021 e chegou a 90,1 pontos naquele mês. De agosto a dezembro, recuou, mas fechou o ano em 81,8 pontos. Depois disso, registrou mais quatro recuos e uma estabilidade.
Atualmente, no nível de 80,9 pontos, está bem abaixo da média histórica do...
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