Indice de miséria avança no Brasil no 1º tri e impacto é maior no NE, aponta MB Associados
A percepção da situação econômica brasileira piorou no primeiro trimestre de 2022, em relação ao mesmo período de 2021, em 14 das 15 capitais mais o Distrito Federal para as quais a MB Associados calcula o índice de miséria.
O índice é construído pela soma da taxa de desemprego e da inflação. Um indicador elevado significa que a percepção de poder de compra por parte da população piorou.
Os dados servem de aproximação para um índice de miséria estadual, segundo o economista-chefe da MB, Sergio Vale. A construção de um índice para os Estados é mais difícil, porque, no caso da taxa de desemprego, há dados trimestrais para todos os entes, enquanto o IPCA tem dados mensais, mas para algumas cidades apenas. "Mesmo assim, é possível com esses dados termos uma ideia de como está essa percepção de miséria entre os Estados brasileiros", diz ele.
O ranking é liderado por Salvador/Bahia (29,9), Recife/Pernambuco (29,1), Aracaju/Sergipe (26,4) e São Luís/Maranhão (26,3). Em todos eles houve piora do índice entre 2021 e 2022. A média nacional está em 22,6, também superior ao registrado no primeiro trimestre do ano passado.
"Como esperado, o Nordeste tem sofrido mais quando comparado com a média nacional desde o ano passado”, escreve Vale. Salvador e Recife, especialmente, têm números bem acima da média nacional, tanto pela inflação elevada quanto pelo desemprego também alto, diz ele.
"Não à toa, a sensação econômica ruim nessa região acaba por ter impacto político na eleição presidencial, com o ex-presidente Lula surgindo bem à frente do presidente Bolsonaro nesses Estados", aponta Vale.
Por outro lado, nos Estados mais industrializados e/ou com forte presença de commodities, os resultados são bem mais baixos, observa o economista. Apesar disso, ele destaca a piora expressiva de Curitiba/Paraná (21,7) e Porto...
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