Infection curve among low-income people will define plan of action
Since late March, a multidisciplinary group organized by Pércio de Souza, founding partner of financial advisory Estáter and of Instituto Estáter, has been holding two to three virtual meetings per week to discuss and analyze global and national covid-19 data and try to contribute with a public and private planning of return to activities in the country. The group includes specialists in public health, low income, infectology, mass psychology, business leaders. The proposal is to use the isolation time to establish a discussion, without taboos, about timetables and focus of investments.
For Mr. Souza, the next two weeks will be key to outline this strategy - since the infection starts getting to the Brazilian low income and it will be possible in 15 days to have some notion of the speed at which it will spread among the poor. "If we take the pace of the United States, it will be more than 1,000 deaths per day. If this happens, nobody goes back to the street with confidence and there's no point trying to do it by decree," he says. For the economy, lack of confidence is worse than negative numbers, he adds. It is precisely in the public sector that there is risk of lack of intensive care beds.
It is also offers some additional time for analyzing several variables, in different countries, and efficacy or not of public measures. The institute's initial analysis shows, for example, that in Germany the mortality rate among infected is lower even with less movement restriction than in other European countries. On the other hand, Singapore, which was considered a success in stopping the pandemic, indicates that the high isolation and the initial measures only delayed the appearance of cases in the country - which now sees a second wave of infections, higher than the first.
The indication is that covid-19 has a contamination level around 2.6 - that is, one infected passes the virus to practically three people, which would be twice as many as the common flu. "Because of this I consider that the successful countries in this process are not those that have fewer contaminations, but fewer deaths," Mr. Souza says.
The analysis - based on Health Ministry, World Health Organization and other national data - also indicates the need of changes in the approach of health policy, considering there are more deaths among non-hospitalized infected and that increasing testing exponentially is not viable - which indicates it may be difficult to maintain the...
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