Inflação deverá ser maior em um governo do PT, diz Stuhlberger
Em um eventual terceiro mandato de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) a partir de 2023, o Brasil deve passar a conviver com uma pressão inflacionária maior e mais persistente em comparação ao que foi observado durante os últimos anos.
A previsão foi feita nesta terça-feira (1º) por Luis Stuhlberger, presidente-executivo e diretor de investimentos da Verde Asset Management, uma das principais gestoras de recursos do mercado brasileiro, que soma cerca de R$ 50 bilhões em ativos.
"Vamos gastar um tanto mais com investimento [em um novo governo do PT], e certamente vamos ter uma inflação maior", afirmou Stuhlberger, durante evento virtual promovido pelo banco Credit Suisse.
Na pesquisa Focus desta semana, a mediana das projeções dos economistas consultados pelo BC (Banco Central) indica uma inflação no Brasil de 5,38% em 2022, desacelerando para 3,5% em 2023.
Em 2021, a alta de preços foi de 10,06%, maior percentual desde 2015.
Na avaliação de Stuhlberger, a taxa de equilíbrio da inflação no país na hipótese de um governo petista de caráter populista deverá estar mais próxima de 5% ao ano, 1,5 ponto percentual acima do centro da meta para 2022.
"Não vejo mais o Brasil em nenhuma hipótese, com o governo do PT, voltando a níveis de inflação de 3%, 3,5% como era", disse o gestor da Verde Asset, que viu o principal fundo da casa fechar 2021 com uma queda de 1,1%, marcando a segunda rentabilidade negativa de sua história.
Rogério Xavier, sócio-fundador da SPX Capital, disse, por sua vez, que prevê um novo governo do PT com dificuldades para lidar com o quadro fiscal, adotando possivelmente como saída um aumento da carga tributária.
"Acho que o Brasil vai avançar pouco, infelizmente. Eu não vejo uma gestão petista fazendo grandes transformações no país. Vejo um Orçamento muito apertado, não tem mais como cortar despesas discricionárias, e para...
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