Inflation beats return on investments in the year
In a year in which the benchmark stock index Ibovespa was among the worst global performances, interest rates rose and inflation eroded Brazilians' purchasing power, leaving investors frustrated with the performance of their portfolio.In Brazil in 2021, no investment could even get close to inflation. For the first time in the entire series followed by Valor and consolidated from Plano Real, none of the investment classes, except bitcoin, had real gain. Inflation beat the Ibovespa, fixed income, the dollar and even gold.The median of the most recent projections of the Focus market survey, carried out by the Central Bank, points to an Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) of 10.04% in 2021. As a result, all classes showed a real drop in income, when discounted for inflation.Not even the dollar, which rose 9.77% against the real in the year until yesterday, had the strength to overcome the rise in prices. Shares and fixed income, on the other hand, showed negative results in the 2021 consolidated result, until the 29th. The Ibovespa dropped 12.5%, while the IMAB+5, which reflects a basket of government bonds pegged to inflation with a maturity of more than five years, lost 6 .8%. The fixed income index (IRFM) yielded 2.1%.Not even gold, an asset considered to be a protection, fulfilled the role of guaranteeing a real gain — that is, discounting inflation. Gold rose only 2.69% in the year, until Wednesday. The exception was the crypto assets universe, where bitcoin had a significant increase of 74.5% in the period.According to the multimarket manager at XP Asset Bruno Marques, "inflation, without a shadow of a doubt, was the biggest drama economy has experienced this year." For him, the strong pressure to increase prices "not only disorganizes economic processes but also harmed a large part of investments."At the calendar turns to 2022, the only encouragement is that Brazilian assets start from a base so depreciated that investment specialists see real chances of recovery. It will not be linear or without obstacles, there are many uncertainties in the way. But the perception is that part of the electoral risk has already been anticipated in asset prices and that the monetary tightening promoted by the Central Bank will finally have an effect on price indices.Anyway, with the Selic policy interest rate at 9.25% per year, and the expectation that it will reach double digits and stay in it for a long time, there is already a safe haven for...
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