Itaú reduz déficit primário do Brasil a 1,6% em 2023, mas vê dívida em trajetória persistente
O Itaú Unibanco revisou sua estimativa para o déficit primário do Brasil em 2023 de R$ 205 bilhões (1,9% do PIB) para R$ 170 bilhões (1,6% do PIB).A revisão decorre, segundo o banco, de um impacto ligeiramente menor do que esperado da versão promulgada pelo Congresso da Proposta de Emenda à Constituição (PEC) da Transição, especificamente com a permissão para a apropriação pelo governo de cerca de R$ 20 bilhões de recursos não sacados do PIS/Pasep, sem contrapartida de gastos adicionais, e da arrecadação esperada de cerca de R$ 15 bilhões com o recente anúncio de redução do aproveitamento de créditos tributários do ICMS.Além dessas medidas, o Itaú considera no cenário que o governo reverterá a desoneração de tributos federais sobre a gasolina a partir de abril, adicionando cerca de R$ 30 bilhões (0,3% do PIB) às receitas."O resultado do ano pode ser pontualmente melhor do que o que estimamos dependendo do sucesso nas medidas de redução de litigiosidade no Conselho Administrativo de Recursos Fiscais (Carf) e de refinanciamento de dívidas administrativas que gerariam receitas extraordinárias e de possíveis gastos menores que os orçados, principalmente pela dificuldade de operacionalizar rapidamente todo o aumento de despesa viabilizado pela PEC da Transição", observa a equipe liderada por Mario Mesquita.Para 2024, o Itaú espera um déficit primário de R$ 105 bilhões (0,9% do PIB), menor do que os R$ 120 bilhões (1% do PIB) previstos anteriormente, mas apesar de um aumento de 1% do PIB da carga tributária, destaca."Do lado da despesa, assumimos que o novo governo implementará uma regra fiscal que mantenha o gasto constante como proporção do produto e que, do lado da receita, aprovará aumentos de arrecadação com a tributação de lucros e dividendos, revisão parcial de desonerações e aumentos de alíquotas de imposto corporativo sobre certos setores", afirmam.A despeito do aumento esperado na carga tributária, a dívida pública deve subir nos próximos anos, segundo o Itaú. Nas suas estimativas, a dívida bruta deve aumentar de 74% para 78% do PIB entre 2022 e...
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