Juro curto tem forte queda após Copom; dólar comercial recua
Após a decisão do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) do Banco Central (BC) de elevar a taxa Selic em 1 ponto percentual e contratar aumento de igual magnitude para maio, os juros futuros de curto prazo abriram o pregão esta quinta-feira em forte queda, conforme o mercado antecipava que o fim do ciclo de alta de juros estava mais próximo. Já o dólar comercial registrava viés de baixa nos primeiros negócios.
Às 9h35, o dólar operava em queda de 0,18%, para R$ 5,0835 no mercado de câmbio à vista. Já a taxa do contrato futuro de Depósito Interfinanceiro (DI) para janeiro de 2023 caía de 13,12% no ajuste anterior para 12,955%, enquanto a do DI janeiro de 2024 recuava de 13,01% para 12,84%. Já a taxa do DI janeiro de 2025 diminuía de 12,45% para 12,37% e a do DI janeiro de 2027 tinha queda de 12,25% para 12,23%.
A princípio, a reação do mercado de juros futuros indica que os operadores financeiros acreditam que o ciclo de aperto monetário deva ser encerrado em breve, o que reduz a pressão sobre a ponta curta da estrutura a termo da curva. Ontem, a curva de juros embutia Selic de 13,75% ao fim de 2022.
Em linha com o esperado, o Copom decidiu aumentar a Selic em 1 ponto, para 11,75% ao ano. A autoridade monetária também antecipou uma alta de juros de mesma intensidade para a próxima reunião, em maio, e afirmou que o aperto seguirá adentrando o terreno significativamente contracionista.
Em uma novidade no comunicado, Copom afirmou ainda que o risco fiscal está sendo parcialmente incorporado nas expectativas de inflação e preços de ativos usados de seus modelos. Ademais, pontuou que o ciclo de juros nos cenários avaliados é suficiente para a convergência da inflação para patamar em torno da meta ao longo do horizonte relevante. Ainda assim, o comitê segue...
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