Juros se ajustam em alta de olho nas eleições nos EUA
Depois de terem permanecido inalterados no pregão de ontem, os juros futuros se ajustaram em alta firme nesta terça-feira, em um movimento atrelado aos mercados internacionais, onde as taxas dos Treasuries tiveram um dia de abertura à espera do resultado das eleições na Geórgia para o Senado dos Estados Unidos. O “miolo” da curva foi o trecho em que houve maior recomposição de prêmio de risco, embora as taxas tenham chegado ao fim do pregão regular afastadas das máximas do dia. O primeiro leilão de títulos públicos do ano também merece destaque ao revelar boa demanda por NTN-Bs.
No fim da sessão regular, a taxa do contrato de Depósito Interfinanceiro (DI) para janeiro de 2022 passava de 2,87% no ajuste anterior para 2,905%; a do DI para janeiro de 2023 subia de 4,19% para 4,30%; a do contrato para janeiro de 2025 escalava de 5,65% para 5,78%; e a do DI para janeiro de 2027 avançava de 6,40% para 6,51%. Por volta de 16h, o retorno da T-note de dez anos subia para 0,959%.
O desempenho da curva de juros local continuou atrelado ao exterior, onde as eleições para duas cadeiras no Senado pela Geórgia são o principal fator que ocupou a atenção dos agentes. Após as eleições de novembro, os republicanos garantiram 50 cadeiras na Casa, enquanto os democratas ficaram com 48. Caso os democratas vençam as duas disputas na Geórgia hoje, o empate tende a favorecer o partido do presidente eleito, Joe BIden, já que o voto de minerva no Senado caberá à vice-presidente eleita, Kamala Harris.
Se os democratas conseguirem levar as duas cadeiras em jogo no Senado, o Goldman Sachs projeta estímulos fiscais maiores, com custo de US$ 600 bilhões a mais no pacote de estímulos de US$ 900 bilhões aprovado no Congresso americano no fim do ano passado. O economista Alec Phillips, porém, alerta para a imprevisibilidade do cenário, tendo em vista que a corrida eleitoral na Geórgia parece desenhar um empate técnico, com as duas disputas na Geórgia bastante apertadas.
Nesse ambiente, os mercados têm trabalhado com um “reflation trade” nos Estados Unidos, onde o juro real medido pelas TIPS, papéis similares às NTN-Bs brasileiras, têm atingido...
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