Juros futuros desabam acompanhando a queda do dólar
A trajetória de apreciação da taxa de câmbio prosseguiu no pregão de hoje e o dólar comercial caiu abaixo dos R$ 4,70, dando sequência ao alívio visto nos últimos dias no prêmio de risco da curva de juros. As taxas dos contratos de Depósito Interfinanceiro (DI) fecharam, assim, em queda superior aos 20 pontos-base (0,2 ponto percentual) contra o ajuste anterior. Agentes financeiros também continuam se ajustando à sinalização de fim do aperto monetário, que tem diminuído o patamar da curva prefixada. Com o movimento, a curva se tornou ainda mais “invertida”, com o diferencial entre taxas curtas e longas ficando mais negativo.
No fim da sessão regular, às 16h, a taxa do contrato futuro de Depósito Interfinanceiro (DI) para janeiro de 2023 passava de 12,73% no ajuste de ontem para 12,63%; a do DI para janeiro de 2024 variava de 12,06% para 11,865%; a do DI para janeiro de 2025 diminuía de 11,42% para 11,175%; e a do DI para janeiro de 2027 se reduzia de 11,22% para 11,005%.
O principal catalisador do mercado de renda fixa doméstico nesta sessão foi o movimento do câmbio, fazendo os juros futuros destoarem da dinâmica de aumento dos rendimentos dos títulos do Tesouro dos Estados Unidos (Treasuries), que disparam cerca de 0,1 ponto no vértice de dois anos, para 2,45%. às 16h40, o dólar comercial se enfraquecia 1,9%, para R$ 4,6693 no mercado à vista. Na mínima intradiária, foi cotado a R$ 4,6623, renovando a mínima em dois anos.
Os juros futuros, assim, mantêm a tendência de queda desde a última reunião do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) do Banco Central, que sinalizou que interromperá o ciclo de aperto com taxa Selic a 12,75% em maio caso o petróleo se mantenha mais próximo do cenário de US$ 100 por barril, induzindo o “fechamento” (recuo) das taxas. Hoje, o Brent para junho fechou estável, cotado a US$ 103 por barril.
Segundo a equipe de macro e estratégia do BTG Pactual, que prevê que o ciclo de aperto monetário será finalizado com taxa Selic a 13,25%, a curva de juros nominais apresenta, no momento, prêmio de risco que pode ser reduzido assim que a inflação faça seu pico, o que deve ocorrer na virada de abril para maio. “Neste ambiente, continuamos sem alterações nos portfólios, porém mais construtivos com o cenário de curva de juros à frente em...
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