Juros futuros seguem títulos dos EUA, mas tombo do dólar limita alta
Acompanhando o viés dos rendimentos dos títulos do Tesouro dos Estados Unidos (Treasuries), as taxas de juros futuros fecharam o pregão de sexta-feira em alta. A intensidade do movimento foi limitada pela forte queda do dólar, em sessão na qual o real voltou a registrar performance notavelmente superior à dos pares emergentes. Ao longo da semana, os juros de curto prazo foram os que mais subiram, conforme o mercado precificava um ciclo de aperto mais longo pelo Banco Central (BC).
No fim da sessão regular, às 16h, a taxa do contrato de Depósito Interfinanceiro (DI) para janeiro de 2023 passava de 13,41% para 13,44%; a do DI para janeiro de 2024 variava de 13,16% para 13,20%; a do DI para janeiro de 2025 ia de 12,52% para 12,575%; e a do DI para janeiro de 2027 recuava de 12,36% para 12,345%.
Ao longo da semana, a taxa de dois anos foi a que mais avançou, aumentando cerca de 10 pontos-base (0,1 ponto percentual), refletindo tanto a “porta aberta” deixada pelo BC para alta de juros além de junho na ata do último Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) e a composição adversa mostrada pelo Indice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) de abril. A inclinação da curva expressa pelo diferencial de juros de dois e cinco anos, assim, tornou-se ainda mais negativa, caindo de -0,72 ponto para -0,86 ponto.
“O BC só deixou sinalizado uma alta de juros para junho, mas não fechou a porta para futuros movimentos, caso isso seja necessário”, diz o economista da MCM Consultores, Antonio Madeira.
“O que o mercado não gostou foi da inflação subjacente [núcleo da inflação, que suaviza itens voláteis como alimentos e energia] e esticou o ciclo até agosto”, afirma, em referência à precificação da curva a termo, que hoje atribui chance majoritária a dois apertos seguidos de 0,50 ponto. A média dos cinco núcleos de inflação acompanhados pela autoridade monetária foi de 0,95% em abril, bem acima da taxa de 0,75% estimada pela MCM.
No pregão de hoje, a dinâmica de “abertura” (aumento) de taxas globais não contaminou de maneira significativa a estrutura a termo doméstica das taxas de juros, que teve o movimento limitado pelo bom desempenho do real, o que conferiu certa rigidez aos DIs. Por volta de 16h20, o dólar comercial cedia 1,73%...
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