Juros futuros têm leve queda, na contramão do exterior
Os juros futuros operam em leve queda no pregão desta segunda-feira, em movimento que os participantes de mercado classificam como um ajuste de posições após a alta forte exibida pelas taxas nos últimos dois pregões. A dinâmica do mercado local contraria a dinâmica dos rendimentos dos principais títulos públicos globais, mesmo em um dia em que as expectativas de inflação para o ano de 2024 voltaram a subir no Boletim Focus.Perto das 13h, a taxa do contrato de Depósito Interfinanceiro (DI) para janeiro de 2024 oscilava de 13,555% para 13,55%; a do DI para janeiro de 2025 caía de 12,845% para 12,835%; a do DI para janeiro de 2026 regredia de 12,79% para 12,755%; e a do DI para janeiro de 2027 passava de 12,855% para 12,81%.A queda nas taxas no pregão de hoje ocorre mesmo a despeito da piora nas projeções dos participantes do mercado. De acordo com o Boletim Focus, divulgado há pouco, o ponto-médio das estimativas de mercado para o IPCA no fim de 2024 - ano em que se encontra grande parte do horizonte relevante de política monetária do Banco Central - passou de 3,84% para 3,90%.Além disso, as medianas das projeções para o IPCA de 2025 e para o IPCA de 2026 estão em 3,50%, também acima da meta de 3% perseguida pela autoridade monetária no período.Segundo o profissional de mesa de uma grande instituição financeira, há uma aparente divergência entre os preços dos ativos já que, ao mesmo tempo em que o mercado espera que o BC seja conservador para obter credibilidade extra, a inflação implícita para os próximos dois anos está muito acima da meta."O mercado não espera cortes, espera uma abordagem ‘hawkish’ do BC, mas uma inflação alta, ao mesmo tempo. A razão é bem simples: o mercado projeta que o governo contrabalance a desaceleração esperada usando estímulos fiscais e parafiscais. Isto é o que atualmente está no preço dos ativos: uma falta...
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