Juros futuros têm viés de queda, com alívio para ativos de risco nos mercados globais
As taxas futuras de juros rondam os ajustes no início do pregão desta segunda-feira, com viés de queda, à medida que os investidores operam em compasso de espera devido aos eventos importantes desta semana para a trajetória de curto prazo dos ativos financeiros, como a reunião de política monetária do Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central dos EUA), na quarta-feira, e o IPCA-15 de julho, amanhã.
Perto das 10h, a taxa do contrato de Depósito Interfinanceiro (DI) para janeiro de 2023 operava a 13,835%, de 13,865% no ajuste anterior; a do DI para janeiro de 2024 marcava 13,75%, de 13,81%; a do DI para janeiro de 2025 operava em ligeira queda, a 13,21%, de 13,265% no ajuste de sexta-feira; e o do DI para janeiro de 2027 recuava a 13,175%, de 13,24%.
Após os mercados globais de renda fixa terem atravessado uma intensa volatilidade nos últimos dias, diante do crescimento das apostas em uma aceleração no ritmo de altas de juros pelo Fed, a probabilidade de uma elevação de 1 ponto percentual nos juros americanos perdeu força recentemente e abriu espaço para uma melhora pontual na demanda por risco. Segundo dados do CME Group, a probabilidade implícita, calculada pelos futuros dos Fed Funds, é de 77,5% para uma alta de 0,75 ponto percentual, contra 22,5% de uma alta de 1 ponto na reunião de quarta-feira.
De acordo com os economistas do BTG Pactual, embora o preço da gasolina tenha perdido força com a queda do petróleo, além de a economia caminhar para um PIB fraco no segundo trimestre, não há muito espaço para o Fed revelar maior preocupação com a desaceleração da economia.
“De fato, vários membros do comitê já se mostraram confortáveis com o ritmo de crescimento atual, sem ver recessão à frente e ressaltando a saúde do mercado de trabalho, bem como a importância de acompanhar o crescimento do produto por outras métricas. Apenas quando o mercado de trabalho começar a revelar uma desaceleração mais clara e a economia estiver em um estágio de contração é que vemos espaço para o...
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