Manhã no mercado: Ativos de risco seguem recuperação, à espera do CPI nos EUA
Os ativos de risco dão sequência à trajetória recente de recuperação no início desta semana, que traz indicadores importantes para os mercados financeiros globais no curto prazo. Nos EUA, será divulgado o índice de preços ao consumidor (CPI), na quarta-feira, que pode reforçar as apostas em um Federal Reserve (Fed) mais agressivo, especialmente após a surpresa com os dados de criação de empregos na sexta-feira. No Brasil, a terça-feira será marcada pela divulgação da ata do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom), além dos dados do IPCA do mês de julho.
Com valuations mais atrativos e uma posição técnica mais favorável, os mercados globais de risco têm apresentado uma dinâmica mais positiva desde julho. Ainda que o cenário siga desafiador, em meio à necessidade dos principais bancos centrais do mundo de apertar as condições financeiras para combater a inflação, sinais de que a desaceleração da atividade econômica poderia abreviar as altas de juros voltaram a ampliar o otimismo dos agentes financeiros.
No entanto, a surpresa com a criação de empregos nos Estados Unidos na sexta-feira voltou a ligar o sinal de alerta de que o mercado de trabalho do país segue robusto e deu força às apostas por uma alta de juros maior para a reunião do Fed em setembro. Neste contexto, os dados de inflação ao consumidor americano na quarta-feira devem ser decisivos para balizar as perspectivas relacionadas à magnitude do aperto monetário pelo Fed até o fim do ano.
No momento, a probabilidade implícita baseada no futuro dos Fed Funds é de 31,5% de uma alta de 0,50 ponto percentual na decisão do dia...
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