Manhã no mercado: Feriado em NY deve retirar liquidez dos mercados no início de semana carregada
O feriado em comemoração ao Dia da Independência dos Estados Unidos deve retirar boa parte da liquidez nos mercados globais, dinâmica que também deve ser refletida hoje no âmbito doméstico. Ainda, diante de uma semana carregada de indicadores relevantes para o futuro de curto prazo dos ativos financeiros, os investidores podem apresentar uma postura de maior parcimônia no pregão de hoje.
Em meio aos sinais mais claros de desaceleração na economia dos Estados Unidos, crescem as dúvidas entre os investidores sobre a possibilidade de o Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central dos EUA) adotar uma postura menos agressiva em relação ao aperto das condições financeiras. Após os dados mais fracos que o esperado do setor de manufatura nos EUA na semana passada, os rendimentos dos Treasuries voltaram a cair e as apostas de Fed Funds mais altos no fim do ano perderam força.
A grande questão é se a inflação, que segue em níveis bastante elevados, dará algum tipo de trégua e permitirá uma mudança de postura do Fed. Em relatório enviado a clientes, os economistas do Goldman Sachs elevaram suas estimativas de inflação para o índice de preços de gastos com consumo (PCE) em 2022, 2023 e 2024.
“Estamos elevando nossas projeções de inflação do PCE para 2022-2024 para 4,2%, 2,5% e 2,3%, respectivamente (vs. 4,0%, 2,3% e 2,2% anteriormente, e comparado a 4,7% da leitura de maio). Isso reflete uma pressão ascendente adicional em categorias de serviços cíclicos, como manutenção doméstica, cuidados pessoais e serviços de alimentação e acomodação”, afirmam.
Assim, a divulgação da ata da última reunião de política monetária do Federal Reserve (Fed), na...
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