Mercado acionário pode cair 50% em cenário de recessão, diz Roubini
O mercado acionário nos Estados Unidos pode não estar nem na metade da sua potencial queda diante da piora das condições financeiras e econômicas globais que se prenuncia. O alerta foi feito pelo o professor emérito de economia da Stern School of Business da Universidade de Nova York e ex-conselheiro econômico da Casa Branca, Noriel Roubini, em artigo publicado pelo site “Project-syndicat.org”.
Conforme o pesquisador e autor de vários livros sobre economia e mercados, a queda livre das ações em um cenário de recessão pode alcançar até 50% do último pico – atualmente o S&P 500, um dos mais importantes referenciais de Nova York, apresenta recuo de 20%.
Para Roubini, a inflação tem sido impulsionada por um “mix” de pressões de demanda e oferta. Porém, os problemas advindos de disrupções nas cadeias de suprimentos tem desempenhado papel cada vez maior sobre a dinâmica dos preços e esse tipo de choque de oferta agregada tem efeito estagflacionário, ou seja, atua tanto na alta da inflação quanto na desaceleração da atividade.
“A inflação impulsionada pela oferta é estagflacionária e, portanto, aumenta o risco de um pouso forçado (aumento do desemprego e potencialmente uma recessão) quando a política monetária é apertada”, apontou o pesquisador. Outro ponto importante dentro da equação dos cenários futuros é se a economia dos EUA terá um “pouso suave”, com perspectiva de se controlar a inflação e ao mesmo tempo evitar uma recessão, ou um “pouso forçado”, como reflexo da política monetária do Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central americano) ter se tornado mais agressiva.
“Várias instituições proeminentes de Wall Street decidiram agora que uma recessão é seu cenário básico - o resultado mais provável se todas as outras variáveis forem mantidas constantes”, ressaltou Roubini. “Tanto nos Estados Unidos quanto na Europa, os indicadores prospectivos da atividade econômica e da confiança das empresas e do consumidor estão caminhando para o sul”.
O professor da Universidade de Nova York também classificou como “perigosamente ingênua” a visão de grande parte dos analistas do mercado de que, mesmo em caso de pouso forçado, a recessão tenderia a ser leve e de curta duração. O pesquisador argumenta que “há muitas...
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