Minério de ferro leva a recuo do IGP-M na 1ª prévia de setembro, aponta FGV
A deflação de 1,09% observada na primeira prévia do Indice Geral de Preços - Mercado (IGP-M) foi causada pelo forte recuo dos preços do minério de ferro e não representa uma tendência para o índice nos meses seguintes. A afirmação é de André Braz, economista do Instituto Brasileiro de Economia da Fundação Getulio Vargas (Ibre/FGV), para quem a inflação “continua espalhada e persistente”.
Excluído o minério de ferro, o Indice de Preços ao Produtor Amplo (IPA), que representa 60% do IGP, teria subido 1,08%, em vez da queda de 1,67% registrada na primeira prévia. O impacto do minério no IPA foi negativo em 2,75 pontos percentuais.
“Isso mostra que as pressões inflacionárias seguem, embora mais amenas que no segundo semestre do ano passado, quando câmbio e commodities subiam. Hoje, o câmbio está estável e as commodities desaceleram”, diz Braz. “O movimento é pontual e não revela as pressões que estamos vivendo”, acrescenta, lembrando que o peso do minério de ferro no IPA é de 10,87%.
André destaca ainda que o cenário para a frente é de preços em desaceleração no atacado, o que não significa, porém, que haverá quedas. Ele lembra que a desaceleração esperada para o acumulado em 12 meses — na primeira prévia de setembro o IGP-M acumula 24,30% em 12 meses, enquanto o IPA soma 29,94% — virá mais pela troca de índices “extremamente altos” um ano atrás, quando havia forte pressão de câmbio e preços de commodities.
Nesse sentido, ele ressalta que IPA e IGP-M...
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