Há oportunidades em quase todas classes de ativos se cenário positivo se confirmar, avalia diretor da Bram
Existem oportunidades em quase todas as classes de ativos no médio e longo prazos, se o cenário macroeconômico positivo se confirmar no próximo ano, afirmou o diretor de Investimentos (CIO) da Bradesco Asset Management (Bram), Philipe Biolchini. O gestor participou do Congresso Brasileiro de Previdência Privada, organizado pela Abrapp.Segundo o especialista, "quando olhamos para a frente e juntamos com nosso cenário macro, vemos oportunidades muito boas em praticamente todo o mercado de capitais no médio e longo prazos". Conforme o executivo, "com a atual aversão ao risco, estamos encontrando preços que a gente não vê há muito tempo".Biolchini afirmou que "há rentabilidade garantida acima de 6% em tudo o que você olha". O gestor citou, como exemplo, que "você consegue aplicar em dólar, em títulos de dívida nos EUA, ganhando variação da moeda americana mais 6%".O CIO da Bram explicou haver muitas incertezas no cenário atual, que levam o mercado a se posicionar de maneira muito cautelosa. "O comportamento do mercado nas curvas mais longas do juro americano é, por exemplo, uma discussão muito importante", avaliou.No curto prazo, existem variáveis que vão manter a volatilidade elevada. A Bram projeta a possibilidade de o Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central americano) ainda fazer mais uma nova elevação para uma taxa terminal entre 5,50% a 5,75%."A mensagem principal é que a intensidade da desaceleração da atividade e da desinflação talvez ainda não esteja no patamar ideal, mas está acontecendo", afirmou. "O PIB global terá desaceleração em 2024 e vemos os BCs no fim do ciclo de alta de juros lá fora", complementou.No Brasil, pontuou Biolchini, "acreditamos que o terceiro trimestre já vai trazer sinais de moderação do [crescimento do] PIB". A Bram projeta manutenção do ritmo de corte da Selic pelo BC de 0,50 ponto por reunião. A casa tem uma estimativa de taxa básica no fim do ciclo de afrouxamento em 9% ao ano."Essa discussão da Selic terminal, com o mercado precificando taxas mais perto de 11%, tem mais a ver com a volatilidade no cenário internacional atual", disse o diretor da Bram."O processo de queda de juros no Brasil é...
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