Otimismo com inflação derruba juros futuros e reforça aposta em corte antecipado da Selic
Na esteira do otimismo em torno da trajetória benigna da inflação corrente e de um quadro fiscal que se afastou de cenários extremos, os juros futuros voltam a cair com força na sessão de hoje. Os agentes continuam a reforçar apostas em torno de uma antecipação no ciclo de desaperto da Selic e a reunião de agosto desponta como o principal palpite, na medida em que a maioria dos agentes não espera alterações no centro da meta de inflação para os próximos anos, fixado hoje em 3%.Leia também: Euforia no mercado leva juros futuros à mínima desde 2021Por volta de 13h, a taxa do contrato de Depósito Interfinanceiro (DI) para janeiro de 2024 passava de 13,095% no ajuste anterior para 13,025%; a do DI para janeiro de 2025 caía de 11,26% para 11,09%; a do contrato para janeiro de 2026 recuava de 10,63% para 10,48%; e a do DI para janeiro de 2027 cedia de 10,64% para 10,52%.Com a realização de um megaleilão de títulos pré-fixados na última quarta-feira, a curva de juros não conseguiu refletir nos preços o alívio observado na inflação corrente, após o IPCA de maio anotar uma surpresa baixista relevante e desenhar um cenário de desinflação ainda mais rápido que o esperado pelo mercado anteriormente. Nesse sentido, o mercado de juros passa por um dia de descompressão de prêmios que se espalha por toda a estrutura a termo da curva, especialmente nos trechos curtos e intermediários, diante de uma visão benigna dos agentes em relação ao ciclo de flexibilização monetária."Vimos recentemente desenvolvimentos esperançosos no front inflacionário, incluindo os componentes mais inerciais, e o real vem se fortalecendo. Em suma, esperamos que o Copom espere até...
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