Pacote tem trajetória de gasto ‘aceitável’, mas não aborda melhoria fiscal duradoura, diz IIF
Embora o pacote de medidas anunciado pela equipe econômica do governo Lula para reduzir o déficit primário brasileiro neste ano seja "aceitável" do lado dos gastos e possa ser um catalisador "moderadamente positivo no curto prazo" para os prêmios de risco dos ativos, seus resultados ainda ficariam aquém de abordar as preocupações do mercado de forma mais duradoura, o que requer uma perspectiva fiscal estável de médio prazo, aponta relatório do Instituto de Finanças Internacionais (IIF, na sigla em inglês).Com medidas (algumas temporárias) para aumentar a arrecadação e, em menor magnitude, de corte de gastos, a perspectiva para o déficit primário em 2023 poderia ser reduzida em cerca de 1% do PIB, segundo o IIF.Leia mais:O que o pacote de Haddad indica, segundo economistasJosé Luis Oreiro: Medidas de Haddad "buscam dar uma satisfação ao mercado"Luiz Fernando de Paula: ‘Um ajuste fiscal mais forte poderia repetir 2015’Arminio Fraga: ‘Vejo as medidas de Haddad com bons olhos. É o início de um trabalho difícil’Manoel Pires: "Vamos ter que ter paciência. As balas de prata que geram economia já foram usadas""Acreditamos que o resultado mais provável seja um déficit primário na faixa de 1% a 1,5% do PIB. Um conjunto final de medidas que produza um déficit de 1,2% do PIB (o nível observado em 2019) seria um sinal positivo de curto prazo", escrevem os economistas Sergi Lanau, Martín Castellano e Jonathan Fortun.Eles observam que alguns agentes no mercado estão insatisfeitos com a dependência do pacote de aumento de impostos em vez de grandes cortes de gastos...
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