PECs alternativas impactam menos, mas não devem emplacar, dizem economistas
Propostas alternativas de parlamentares para a emenda à Constituição (PEC) de Transição com previsão de gastos extra teto de R$ 70 bilhões a R$ 80 bilhões indicam impactos mais modestos e maiores restrições, ao contrário da proposta do novo governo, com flexibilizações irrestritas para o gasto social do novo Bolsa Família, afirma Renan Martins, economista sênior da MCM Consultores."A minuta inicial da PEC de transição, inclusive, abre espaço para aumento anual explosivo do teto de gastos, ao incluir o montante das despesas com o programa de renda na base de cálculo da regra", diz.Do ponto de vista político, porém, Martins observa que as PECs propostas pelos parlamentares parecem ser mais uma tentativa de marcar posição no debate, mas com pouca probabilidade de aglutinarem apoio suficiente para sua aprovação."A proposta que vai avançar será aquela encampada pelo governo, ainda que seja uma versão modificada e com a inclusão de emendas apresentadas pelos congressistas", afirma o economista.Sobre o comentário de um membro da equipe econômica de transição de que um gasto adicional ao teto de R$ 136 bilhões não representar expansão fiscal em 2023, na comparação com 2022, Martins diz que a afirmação está sujeita a algumas considerações."Primeiro, baseia-se em números do Projeto de Lei Orçamentária Anual (PLOA) 2023 enviado pelo governo em agosto, que apresenta estimativas consideravelmente defasadas para 2022 e, no mínimo, fora do consenso para 2023. Qualquer pequena revisão nos indicadores de inflação e PIB para 2022 e 2023 afeta os resultados da despesa/PIB e, portanto, as conclusões do exercício", afirma.Além disso, diz, supondo que tenham sido usado números atualizados e as contas tenham sido feito de forma cuidadosa, olhar somente para a relação despesa/PIB é uma forma pouco usual de avaliar a posição da...
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