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Petrobras expected to post sluggish Q4 results

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Vincent

Petrobras is anticipated to report lower fourth-quarter results compared to the same period in 2022, but experts suggest that investors will prioritize dividend payouts. The average of six analysts consulted by Valor indicates that the state-owned company’s net profit from October to December 2023 is expected to be R$34.1 billion, down 21.4% from R$43.4 billion in the same period of 2022.Net sales, according to the calculated average, should be R$128 billion, down 19.1% from R$158.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022. Adjusted EBITDA should be R$70.2 billion, down 3.8% from R$73 billion in October-December 2022. Valor compiled estimates from Itaú BBA, Safra, BTG Pactual, Goldman Sachs, BB Investimentos, and Ativa Investimentos.According to the analysts interviewed by Valor, the factors generating the difference between the results for the fourth quarter of 2022 and 2023 are the price of Brent and one-off effects that boosted the previous results. According to Valor Data, Brent closed the fourth quarter of 2023 with an average price of $84.54, down from $88.26 in the same period last year.Itaú BBA informed the highest profit estimate, at R$35.9 billion. Safra revealed the lowest one, at R$31.9 billion. The highest revenue forecast is that of Ativa Investimentos, at R$140.35 billion, and the lowest from BB Investimentos, at R$117 billion. The most optimistic EBITDA forecast comes from Itaú BBA, at R$74.6 billion, and the most pessimistic from BB Investimentos, at R$60.84 billion.In 2022, Petrobras said profits would benefit from gains from co-participation agreements in the Sépia, Atapu and Búzios fields, as well as asset sales.According to analysts, investors will focus on the possible announcement of an extraordinary dividend payment when Petrobras makes its announcement on March 7 after the market closes. For them, Petrobras has room to pay the minimum level of ordinary and extraordinary dividends.For Ativa Investimentos, the state-owned company should pay R$1.50 per share for regular dividends and up to R$2 per share for extraordinary dividends. In total, the...

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