Pressão sobre moedas dificulta cortes de juros na AL, diz Standard Chartered
Analistas do banco observam que o câmbio em países da região está entre os piores desempenhos do complexo emergentes A forte desvalorização das moedas emergentes, em especial na América Latina, pode colocar em risco a precificação de novos cortes de juros na região. A avaliação é do Standard Chartered.Em relatório, o banco britânico nota que o pânico dos últimos dias resultou em um salto da volatilidade em vários mercados. "As taxas das pontas curtas de vários emergentes recuaram juntamente com seus pares em países desenvolvidos, mas podem encontrar dificuldades em permanecer alinhadas", nota o estrategista sênior para emergentes, Ilya Gofshteyn.
"Caso a volatilidade permaneça elevada, as moedas emergentes sofrerão ainda mais pressão e, nesse cenário, os bancos centrais desses países podem ser compelidos a reverter o curso e soar mais "hawkish" (favorável a manutenção dos juros) para desincentivar uma fuga de capitais."O analista observa que as moedas da América Latina estão entre os piores desempenhos do complexo emergentes, o que significa que os BCs da região podem ser confrontados mais rapidamente com essa escolha.Roberto Moreyra/Agência O Globo
"Com o peso chileno acumulando queda de 25% nos últimos doze meses contra o dólar, entendemos que a curva de juros do país como a mais vulnerável. As curvas do México e do Brasil também estão sob ameaça, em nossa visão.Nos cálculos do...
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