Projeção do mercado para PIB em 2020 cai para -5,89%, mostra Focus
A mediana das projeções do mercado para o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) brasileiro em 2020 caiu pela 15ª semana consecutiva, de -5,12% para -5,89%, no Relatório Focus, do Banco Central (BC), divulgado nesta segunda-feira com estimativas coletadas até o fim da semana passada.
O corte reflete as mudanças nas expectativas anunciadas por bancos, corretoras, gestoras de recursos e consultorias nas últimas semanas, após o aumento dos receios quanto aos efeitos da pandemia de covid-19, causada pelo novo coronavírus, na economia. Algumas instituições já projetam retração de 5% ou mais para o PIB brasileiro em 2020.
Para 2021, o ponto-médio das expectativas foi elevado de 3,20% para 3,50%, com alguns economistas apostando na recuperação de pelo menos parte das perdas deste ano no próximo.
A mediana das projeções para a inflação oficial em 2020 entre os economistas que mais acertam as previsões, os chamados Top 5, de médio prazo, caiu de 1,61% para 1,33%, segundo o Focus.
Em relação a 2021, o ponto-médio das expectativas para o Indice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) manteve-se em 3,00% entre os campeões de acertos.
Entre os economistas em geral, a mediana das estimativas para o IPCA no fim do ano caiu pela 11ª semana seguida, agora de 1,59% para 1,57%. Para o próximo, o ponto-médio de todas as projeções para a alta de preços caiu de 3,20%...
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