Queda no mercado de ações dos EUA pode ser longa e dolorosa
O mercado de ações dos EUA entrou em "bear market" (nível técnico que indica tendência de queda e é marcado pelo recuo de 20% em relação a um pico recente) e, se a história servir de guia, esse processo pode ser longo e doloroso. Este é o quarto evento desse tipo para o índice S&P 500 nas últimas duas décadas. Enquanto o último "bear market", de 2020, foi principalmente um choque causado pela pandemia de covid-19, os anteriores, em 2000 e 2008, levaram muito mais tempo para encontrar um fundo e depois recuperar as perdas.
De acordo com Peter Garnry, chefe de estratégia de ações do Saxo Bank, as vendas atuais têm mais em comum com o colapso das pontocom de 2000 e o "bear market" de 1973-1974, que foi pontuado pelo aumento dos preços do petróleo vinculado a um embargo de petróleo da Organização dos Países Exportadores de Petróleo (Opep). Isso se deve à combinação de avaliações ("valuations") de empresas alta tecnologia e a atual crise de commodities, disse ele.
Aqui estão seis informações que fornecem contexto em "bear markets" anteriores:
O índice S&P 500 caiu 51% do pico ao fundo do poço entre 2000 e 2002 e 58% durante a crise financeira global, e em ambas as ocasiões levou mais de 1 mil dias de negociação para recuperar as perdas. No caso do primeiro, foram necessários 638 dias para atingir o piso, enquanto para o segundo, levou 352 dias, sugerindo que a atual liquidação ainda pode ser "jovem'.
Os "valuations" dos papéis do índice atingiram um pico histórico pouco antes do estouro da bolha tecnológica em 2000. A relação preço/lucro do S&P 500 era de cerca de 25 vezes naquela época. Isso é semelhante à situação atual, já que as avaliações futuras estavam se aproximando de 24 antes do mercado começar a cair este ano. Por outro lado, as ações estavam relativamente baratas antes da crise...
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