Ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement may be pushed to 2023
In June 2019 the European Union and Mercosur announced the conclusion of the terms of their historic trade agreement after 20 years of negotiations. The pact was only possible because the European authorities made use of several concessions made by the Bolsonaro administration, who after six months in power showed strong will to liberalize the market alongside with the then government of Maurício Macri in Argentina.
A year and nine months later, the same Bolsonaro administration has now become a negative factor for the ratification of the agreement. The president's toxic image abroad, the deteriorated trust in his environmental policy and the deforestation of the Amazon fuel the resistance by 27 member countries of the UE to what would be the largest trade agreement for the two blocs, home of 780 million people.
Despite efforts by Mercosur, the European Commission (EU's executive arm) and some European governments to push for the approval of the agreement, the reality is that it will take time. The most realistic option is to expect ratification only after the 2022 presidential elections, first in France and then in Brazil. It is unlikely that the ratification will take place before the French elections in April. And Europeans do not seem willing to "offer a gift" to President Jair Bolsonaro during an election campaign by greenlighting the bi-regional agreement to take effect.
Currently, the situation can be summed up like this: Europe pretends to want to move forward, and Mercosur pretends to believe so. Just look at the European demand for additional commitments from Brazil and the rest of Mercosur to combat deforestation. They are fundamental to quiet down criticism from environmentalists and farmers seeking protection and subsidies.
The Europeans promised to present a proposal to negotiate with Mercosur. But it was only after a few months that the EU finally had the first meeting of the 27 member countries to discuss the issue last week. There was a general understanding of the importance of obtaining strong commitment from Brazil against deforestation. They also agreed that this does not mean reopening the agreement negotiations. Aside from that, there is no rush to reach an understanding with the Mercosur countries at this point.
Some sources predict that Europeans may want some technical guarantees from Mercosur, such as ensuring complete traceability of beef production, introduction of labeling and a mechanism for monitoring...
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