Reelection plan pressured by multi-billion debt
When he took over the Ministry of Finance wearing a shirt and a tie hastily bought in a shopping mall in Brasília for the sake of formality, former minister Guido Mantega faced distrust. He said he sensed energies from his predecessor, Antonio Palocci, in his office.Today, the specter that haunts the same office is another one: that of the presidential impeachment motivated by budget tampering. It is because of this fear that the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, is more cautious as tries to build a solution for the "meteor," as he put it, of the court-ordered payments, a bill of R$89 billion to be paid in 2022.Paying this extraordinary bill "without going to jail," as someone close to the minister exaggeratedly said, is the core of the concern in the Ministry of Economy. It is estimated that the solution, which began to be built this week, will require a change in the Constitution, to give due legal coverage to the members of the economic team.Therefore, the design discussed by Mr. Guedes with Chamber of Deputies Speaker Arthur Lira (Progressive Party, PP, of Alagoas) and Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (Democrats, DEM, of Minas Gerais) will be accommodated in the constitutional amendment proposal (PEC) 23/21, already in progress.Of the R$89 billion to be paid next year, about R$40 billion will remain under the spending cap, which limits growth in public spending to the previous year’s inflation. The remaining balance will be removed from the limit and paid in other ways, which are not detailed. Mr. Pacheco cited as possibilities: offsetting of debts, compensation, purchase of assets and negotiation between the parties.The idea is that the states, for example, which have nearly R$16 billion in court-ordered debts to be received, will have this credit confronted with what they owe to the National Treasury. Private holders of court-ordered debts will be able to use them to pay taxes and buy shares in - or real estate from - state-owned companies.If the balance is still not paid in full, a portion can be carried over to 2023, the Senate president said.A government source gave different information. He said that the court-ordered debts that will remain outside the spending cap can be paid with extraordinary credit to the budget, so that everything will be paid in 2022. The unequivocal signal that there will be no default will help the government to negotiate discounts.Passing the PEC is a difficult task. The electoral calendar, however, may...
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