Retomada da China é baseada em investimentos e dívida crescerá mais, diz economista
A dívida da China deve chegar a 285% de seu Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) ao fim deste ano e continuará a crescer em 2021, como parte da estratégia focada em investimentos de Pequim para responder à pandemia de covid-19. As previsões são do economista chinês Chen Long, fundador da consultoria Plenum, que participou nesta quarta-feira (9) de um webinar organizado pelo Conselho Empresarial Brasil-China (CEBC).
A tática para enfrentar os efeitos da pandemia é, segundo Long, diferente da adotada para combater a crise de 2008, quando a China recorreu a mais instrumentos monetários para proteger a economia. Mas, apesar das mudanças, dois setores responsáveis pela recuperação há mais de dez anos se mantêm, hoje, como principais motores da retomada chinesa: o mercado imobiliário e a produção de automóveis.
Como resposta à nova crise, o governo ampliou os gastos em infraestrutura, o que ajudou alguns setores da indústria, como o de máquinas pesadas, cuja produção disparou nos últimos meses por causa da alta demanda das construtoras. O consumo dos chineses e as vendas do varejo, porém, continuam distantes dos níveis pré-pandemia.
Além disso, na avaliação de Long, as exportações chinesas têm mostrado uma resiliência maior do que o inicialmente previsto, em especial graças aos equipamentos eletrônicos, como semicondutores.
Apesar da importância das vendas ao exterior para a recuperação pós-pandemia, Long destacou que a China tem reduzido a dependência das exportações ao longo da última década, como parte de um plano recentemente batizado pelo presidente do país, Xi Jinping, como “dupla circulação”.
“Da perspectiva macroeconômica, isso não é novo...
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