Retomada de investimentos estrangeiros deve demorar mais no Brasil, diz IIF
Além de ter registrado a saída mais intensa de capitais estrangeiros para portfólio em 2020 entre todos os países emergentes, a falta de atratividade do Brasil deve fazer com que o país demore a voltar aos níveis pré-crise, enquanto os demais emergentes devem se recuperar mais rápido. A avaliação é do economista do Instituto Internacional de Finanças, Jonathan Fortun.
Embora já tenha ocorrido certa recuperação desde o pico da crise, o Brasil ainda registrava uma saída líquida de capitais não-residentes para investimentos de US$ 25,5 bilhões no final de junho - o primeiro mês de fluxo positivo desde março -, segundo dados compilados pela instituição. O rombo é praticamente o dobro dos US$ 13,7 bilhões registrados pelo México, por exemplo.
Recuperação dos investimentos estrangeiros no Brasil será mais lenta, diz IIF "Observamos que o impacto da crise da Covid-19 sobre a saída de capitais dos emergentes foi uma espécie de dominó geográfico global com início na China. A recuperação também tem seguido esse padrão", diz Fortun.
"O Brasil, no entanto, não é um bom exemplo desse movimento porque sentiu mais rápido os efeitos da crise e também porque já vinha de uma dinâmica específica anterior. Antes de junho, o último mês positivo para a renda variável do Brasil havia sido novembro. A renda fixa teve nove meses negativos em 2019 antes de apresentar algum fluxo positivo em janeiro e fevereiro", diz, salientando que parte importante desse efeito vem da perdas relacionadas à desvalorização do real no período.
Para o economista, a falta de um plano claro para combater a Covid-19 acelerou este processo e continua afastando investidores. "Infelizmente, acreditamos que o fluxo para o Brasil vai se recuperar em ritmo mais lento que outros emergentes, uma vez que há outros fatores que afetam a perspectiva local. A desvalorização do real nos preocupa há algum tempo, mesmo com dados da economia mostrando melhora", diz. "Do ponto de vista dos fluxos, não terá o...
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