Riscos fiscais impõem forte alta às taxas de juros futuros
Embora tenham se afastado das máximas do dia, os juros futuros chegam nesta tarde de sexta-feira em forte alta, que se espalha ao longo de toda a curva a termo. O movimento mais forte é visto nos trechos de longo prazo, no momento em que alguns vértices se firmam acima de dois dígitos diante da escalada nos riscos fiscais e políticos, que continuam no centro das atenções dos agentes do mercado em um cenário de retomada da atividade econômica e de pressões inflacionárias intensas, ao menos no curto prazo.
Assim, por volta de 13h40, a taxa do contrato de Depósito Interfinanceiro (DI) para janeiro de 2022 subia de 6,58% no ajuste anterior para 6,595%; a do DI para janeiro de 2023 avançava de 8,25% para 8,32%; a do contrato para janeiro de 2025 escalava de 9,24% para 9,35%; e a do DI para janeiro de 2027 saltava de 9,63% para 9,76%.
Em trechos de prazo ainda mais longo, os juros se firmaram em dois dígitos: a taxa do DI para janeiro de 2029 passava de 9,89% para 10,04%; e a do DI para janeiro de 2031 aumentava de 10,09% para 10,24%. É preciso lembrar, contudo, que a liquidez na parte mais longa da curva é mais baixa do que nos trechos curtos e intermediários.
Influenciado pelas perspectivas em torno das contas públicas, o mercado de juros voltou a ser penalizado pelo ambiente ruidoso no Brasil. Assim, a curva brasileira não conseguiu acompanhar a queda dos rendimentos dos Treasuries de longo prazo nos Estados Unidos e voltou a sofrer com forte alta nas taxas longas. O mercado, assim, continua a reprecificar o cenário político e fiscal do país, tendo em vista o adiamento da votação da reforma do Imposto de Renda, as incertezas em torno do pagamento dos precatórios e sobre como ficará o teto de gastos em 2022.
“O mercado está sem parâmetro algum”, afirma um gestor de renda fixa que prefere não se identificar.
Na avaliação do economista-chefe da Porto Seguro Investimentos, José Pena, “a elevação dos gastos públicos é insustentável a longo prazo”. “Quando o Executivo enviar a proposta de Orçamento da União de 2022 ao Congresso no fim deste mês, o valor da despesa pública deve mostrar...
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