Santander eleva projeção para a Selic no fim do ano de 2,5% para 4%
O desconforto com o grau “extraordinário” de estímulo monetário sinalizado recentemente pelo Banco Central levou o Santander a elevar sua projeção para a taxa básica de juros neste ano de 2,5% para 4%. “Trabalhamos com uma normalização parcial da taxa Selic a partir de um início precoce de um ciclo de alta”, dizem os economistas do banco, que citam o tom mais duro do BC na ata da reunião do Copom de janeiro, quando a prescrição futura foi oficialmente retirada da comunicação.
“O BC está claramente preparando terreno para iniciar um ajuste tempestivo na taxa de juros, visto como uma 'normalização parcial’. O momento, o ritmo e a magnitude do ajuste dependerão dos dados”, dizem os economistas do Santander. Eles lembram, porém, que houve uma aparente divergência no comitê sobre os próximos passos no curto prazo, o que reforça a dependência em relação à evolução do cenário.
Para o Santander, a maior parte das altas ocorrerá entre o segundo trimestre e o terceiro, com o ciclo começando com aumento de 0,25 ponto em março ou de 0,50 ponto em maio.
Além de ter revisado sua projeção para a Selic para cima, o Santander também passou a esperar uma inflação mais pressionada em 2021, mas ainda abaixo do centro da meta (3,75%). A estimativa do banco para o IPCA no fim deste ano passou de 3,0% para 3,6%. Os economistas continuam a enxergar demanda fraca no curto prazo e que se recuperará gradualmente. No entanto, eles incorporaram ao cenário uma maior inflação de custos e de oferta, que deve afetar, principalmente...
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