Santander reduz projeções para o PIB, que cairia 6% no pior cenário
No cenário mais provável traçado pelo banco, economia sofreria contração de 2,2% em 2020 O Santander Brasil revisou sua projeção para o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) neste ano, de crescimento de 1% para retração de 2,2%, informou nesta segunda-feira a economista-chefe do banco, Ana Paula Vescovi, em audioconferencia com jornalistas.
Esse é o cenário-base, que inclui quedas de 0,23% no primeiro trimestre e de 5,33% no segundo, sempre em relação aos três meses anteriores. Neste caso, as medidas de "lockdown" se estenderiam até o fim de abril e as atividades se normalizariam até o fim de julho. No terceiro trimestre, haveria uma retomada considerável do PIB, com alta de 3,45%, seguida por avanço de 0,43% no quarto trimestre.
Para o PIB de 2021, a previsão do Santander Brasil passou de crescimento de 2% para 1,7%.
Ana Paula Vescovi, economista-chefe do Santander.
Ana Paula Paiva/Valor
No cenário mais pessimistas, no entanto, que tem 25% de probabilidade de acontecer, a queda do PIB neste ano seria de 6%, mas no ano que vem haveria crescimento de 2,8%. Nessa hipótese, o "lockdown" se mantém até o fim de junho, e a economia brasileira só volta a estar totalmente operacional no começo de 2021.
Já o cenário mais otimista projeta uma...
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