Sem volatilidade do minério, IGP-M teria desacelerado em julho, diz FGV
Não fosse a volatilidade nos preços do minério de ferro, a inflação no atacado e o Indice Geral de Preços - Mercado (IGP-M) teriam desacelerado em julho, afirmou André Braz, coordenador dos Indices de Preços do Instituto Brasileiro de Economia da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV Ibre). Divulgado nesta quinta-feira pela entidade, o IGP-M avançou de 0,60% em junho para 0,78% um mês depois.
A mediana de estimativas de 23 analistas consultados pelo Valor Data previa alta maior para o dado, de 0,89%. “O IGP-M poderia ter surpreendido ainda mais o mercado se o minério tivesse continuado em queda”, avalia Braz. Para ele, o aumento nas cotações da matéria-prima é explicado pela expansão das importações da China com origem no Brasil, em detrimento de outros fornecedores, como a Austrália.
A commodity metálica subiu 2,7% em julho, depois de recuar 3,04% um mês antes. “Quase metade da inflação no atacado foi dada pelo minério, que é o subitem que mais pesa dentro do atacado”, observou o economista. Em seus cálculos, o minério respondeu por 0,34 ponto percentual da taxa deste mês do Indice de Preços ao Produtor Amplo (IPA), que subiu 0,71% em julho, ante 0,42% em junho. O IPA representa 60% dos IGPs.
Com exceção do minério de ferro, a maior parte das matérias-primas brutas mostrou desaceleração ou queda, ressalta Braz. Como exemplo, ele menciona café (8,15% para 0,04%), cana (7,73% para 1,36%) e trigo (-1,33% para -5,79%). Esses não são itens de maior peso no IPA, mas foram destacados pelo economista porque sua trajetória de descompressão está ameaçada pela crise hídrica no país, assim como pelas geadas recentes.
“Eles não têm garantia de que continuarão...
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