Situação fiscal do Brasil piorou, dizem 69% dos economistas em questionário do BC
Para 69% dos economistas consultados em questionário pré-reunião do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom), do Banco Central (BC), divulgado na manhã desta quarta-feira (9), a situação fiscal do Brasil piorou de dezembro para cá.
O documento foi enviado a economistas do mercado em 21 de fevereiro. As respostas são analisadas antes da reunião do comitê sobre a taxa básica de juros (Selic) e servem como subsídio para a decisão.
Entre os entrevistados, 22% acham que não houve mudança relevante no cenário fiscal no período e 10% dizem que melhorou.
No questionário, 98% dos economistas (entre 91 respostas) afirmaram que o BC elevaria a Selic em 1,5 ponto percentual na reunião da semana passada e 87% afirmaram que o BC deveria subir a Selic em 1,5 ponto (entre 81 respostas).
A mediana das projeções para a inflação de 2022 ficou em 5,23% e o câmbio, em R$ 5,60. A previsão dos economistas foi de Selic a 11,75% no fim do ano.
Para 2023, a mediana ficou em 3,35% para o IPCA, R$ 5,50 para o dólar e 8% ao ano para a Selic.
Entre 93 entrevistados, 15% disseram ter risco de inflação mais baixa que a apontada em seu cenário para a inflação deste ano, 35% responderam que o risco é equilibrado para cima e para baixo e 49% afirmaram ter risco de alta.
Para o próximo ano, 11% dizem ter risco de baixa, 44%, equilibrado, e 45%, de alta.
Para o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) de 2021, a previsão mediana dos economistas é de crescimento de 4,5% e de 0,3% para 2022. Sobre os riscos no cenário traçado para a atividade, 69% apontam ser de baixa, 25% equilibrado e 3% de alta.
Em relação aos efeitos da variante ômicron da covid-19 na economia, 15% projetavam impacto, contra 85% que não previam efeito negativo na atividade.
Um total de 82% disse que cenário externo é menos favorável para economias emergentes em comparação à reunião do Copom de dezembro, 14% não viam mudança e 5% achavam mais favorável. Para 41%, as cadeias globais de insumos irão retornar aos padrões históricos no quarto trimestre deste ano e 39% acham que será no terceiro trimestre.
A mediana da projeção para a taxa de juros dos Estados Unidos é de 1% em 2022 e 2% em...
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