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Sugarcane crushing to drop nearly 10% after record harvest

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Vincent

The anticipated decrease in rainfall in March and April, along with the onset of La Niña in the second half of the year, is expected to lead to a 64 million tonnes reduction—or 9.8%—in sugarcane crushing in the Center-South in the next 2024/25 harvest, resulting in 592 million tonnes. The current cycle, ending this month, is poised to achieve a record output of 656 million tonnes of cane, as announced by consultancy Datagro at a harvest kickoff event in Ribeirão Preto, in the state of São Paulo."This ending harvest is one for the books. The March and April 2023 rains brought record production, and the dry spell at the end enabled full cane processing. Favorable rainfall, absence of frosts, a low fire incidence, controlled borer infestation, and high technology use by producers contributed," stated Plínio Nastari, Datagro’s president, at the event.Mr. Nastari noted that the 2023/24 harvest offered lucrative sugar prices, though ethanol prices remained pressured by low consumption, which started to rebound in August.Datagro anticipates sugar exports to far exceed the historical average, reaching 32.85 million tonnes, with a carryover stock of 3.28 million. The higher profitability of sugar prices suggests a more sugar-focused upcoming harvest.Sugar production is estimated to drop to 40.5 million tonnes in the new cycle starting in April, down from 42.5 million tonnes in the last harvest. Ethanol production is forecasted to decrease from 33.52 billion liters to 30.4 billion liters.A 27% reduction in rainfall over the next three months below the historical average, crucial for sugarcane development, along with decreased precipitation and...

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