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Weak Black Friday puts pressure on retail for Christmas

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Vincent

It was the worst Black Friday in history, since the sales date arrived in the country in 2010, which increases the pressure on retail for Christmas — at a time of greater risk of a new wave of contagion by the omicron variant of Covid-19. The nominal and real (discounted for inflation) performances were below the weaker numbers of 2016 and 2017, calculated by consumer research companies."Christmas needs to be good to alleviate this Black Friday and save the end of the year. Our dependence for December sales has grown," said Sunday the head of an electronics chain with 100 stores. Supermarkets and food marketplaces fared better this year than electronics and furniture. Publicly traded retailers may release data on Monday with above-market expansion — not too difficult given the weak overall rally. This was still under review on Friday, sources say.Starting this week, the focus will be to resume negotiations with the industry to adjust orders already placed for the end of December. This occurs after analyzing what was possible to take out from stocks at the sales date, and what still continues to take space in the warehouses.Online sales data show a nominal rise in revenue of 5% and 6% between Thursday and Friday over 2020, according to companies NielsenIQ Ebit and Neostrust, respectively. Therefore, there is a real average single-digit decline — considering the 11.65% increase in durable goods prices in 12 months (according to the Extended Consumer Price Index, IPCA). The number of orders dropped 9% and remained stable, respectively, in the survey by each of the consultants. The real rise is relevant to check how the volume sold in the country is doing.One of the reasons given by some executives for this weak number is the strong basis of comparison of e-commerce in 2020, the year of the pandemic, when sales rose 25%. It so happens that, in previous years, despite the recession, Black Friday managed to grow double digits on top of strong bases, which has not been repeated now. "If Auxílio Brasil had arrived in November, it would have given a helping hand, at least", says the superintendent of a chain of stores, referring to the new cash transfer program that will replace Bolsa...

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