Portaria STN/MF nº 1.141 - parte 4
| Link to Original Source | http://pesquisa.in.gov.br/imprensa/jsp/visualiza/index.jsp?data=30/01/2023&jornal=515&pagina=42 |
| Data de publicação | 30 Janeiro 2023 |
| Páginas | 42-43 |
| Órgão | Ministério da Fazenda,Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional |
| Seção | DO1 |
Portaria STN/MF nº 1.141 - parte 4
GOVERNO FEDERAL | |||||||||
RELATÓRIO RESUMIDO DA EXECUÇÃO ORÇAMENTÁRIA | |||||||||
DEMONSTRATIVO DA PROJEÇÃO ATUARIAL DO REGIME GERAL DE PREVIDÊNCIA SOCIAL | |||||||||
ORÇAMENTO DA SEGURIDADE SOCIAL | |||||||||
2023 A 2100 | |||||||||
Tabela 5.1 - Evolução da receita, despesa e necessidade de financiamento do RGPS |
|||||||||
Exercício |
Receita |
Receita / PIB |
Despesa |
Despesa / PIB |
Necessidade de Fin. |
Necessidade de Fin. / PIB |
PIB |
||
2023 |
613.748 |
5,73% |
825.204 |
7,71% |
211.456 |
1,97% |
10.707.551 |
||
2024 |
658.294 |
5,73% |
911.357 |
7,93% |
253.063 |
2,20% |
11.493.434 |
||
2025 |
692.707 |
5,63% |
961.767 |
7,82% |
269.060 |
2,19% |
12.295.275 |
||
2026 |
728.511 |
5,57% |
1.014.725 |
7,75% |
286.214 |
2,19% |
13.087.849 |
||
2027 |
765.520 |
5,50% |
1.067.134 |
7,67% |
301.614 |
2,17% |
13.913.249 |
||
2028 |
803.842 |
5,50% |
1.121.684 |
7,67% |
317.841 |
2,17% |
14.626.138 |
||
2029 |
843.597 |
5,49% |
1.189.057 |
7,74% |
345.460 |
2,25% |
15.366.642 |
||
2030 |
884.856 |
5,48% |
1.251.457 |
7,76% |
366.602 |
2,27% |
16.136.170 |
||
2031 |
927.478 |
5,48% |
1.317.116 |
7,78% |
389.639 |
2,30% |
16.930.982 |
||
2032 |
971.728 |
5,47% |
1.395.700 |
7,86% |
423.972 |
2,39% |
17.757.008 |
||
2033 |
1.017.628 |
5,47% |
1.467.816 |
7,89% |
450.188 |
2,42% |
18.614.706 |
||
2034 |
1.065.181 |
5,46% |
1.543.588 |
7,91% |
478.407 |
2,45% |
19.504.067 |
||
2035 |
1.114.390 |
5,46% |
1.634.909 |
8,00% |
520.519 |
2,55% |
20.424.875 |
||
2036 |
1.165.194 |
5,45% |
1.719.016 |
8,04% |
553.822 |
2,59% |
21.374.290 |
||
2037 |
1.217.852 |
5,45% |
1.807.799 |
8,09% |
589.947 |
2,64% |
22.358.975 |
||
2038 |
1.272.291 |
5,44% |
1.915.260 |
8,19% |
642.970 |
2,75% |
23.378.277 |
||
2039 |
1.328.483 |
5,44% |
2.014.995 |
8,25% |
686.512 |
2,81% |
24.431.538 |
||
2040 |
1.386.403 |
5,43% |
2.119.733 |
8,31% |
733.330 |
2,87% |
25.517.986 |
||
2041 |
1.446.307 |
5,43% |
2.245.123 |
8,43% |
798.815 |
3,00% |
26.639.303 |
||
2042 |
1.508.241 |
5,43% |
2.365.383 |
8,51% |
857.143 |
3,08% |
27.798.805 |
||
2043 |
1.572.238 |
5,42% |
2.491.511 |
8,59% |
919.272 |
3,17% |
28.997.224 |
||
2044 |
1.638.273 |
5,42% |
2.636.289 |
8,72% |
998.016 |
3,30% |
30.234.468 |
||
2045 |
1.706.303 |
5,42% |
2.780.431 |
8,82% |
1.074.128 |
3,41% |
31.510.018 |
||
2046 |
1.776.608 |
5,41% |
2.932.486 |
8,93% |
1.155.878 |
3,52% |
32.825.519 |
||
2047 |
1.849.366 |
5,41% |
3.099.309 |
9,07% |
1.249.944 |
3,66% |
34.187.301 |
||
2048 |
1.924.552 |
5,41% |
3.268.685 |
9,18% |
1.344.132 |
3,78% |
35.594.735 |
||
2049 |
2.002.108 |
5,40% |
3.445.661 |
9,30% |
1.443.553 |
3,90% |
37.047.259 |
||
2050 |
2.081.942 |
5,40% |
3.636.784 |
9,44% |
1.554.841 |
4,03% |
38.544.110 |
||
2051 |
2.164.434 |
5,40% |
3.832.668 |
9,56% |
1.668.234 |
4,16% |
40.087.958 |
||
2052 |
2.249.662 |
5,40% |
4.033.928 |
9,68% |
1.784.266 |
4,28% |
41.684.970 |
||
2053 |
2.337.470 |
5,39% |
4.244.128 |
9,79% |
1.906.659 |
4,40% |
43.333.946 |
||
2054 |
2.427.737 |
5,39% |
4.461.502 |
9,91% |
2.033.765 |
4,52% |
45.034.082 |
||
2055 |
2.520.321 |
5,39% |
4.689.076 |
10,02% |
2.168.754 |
4,64% |
46.783.436 |
||
2056 |
2.616.129 |
5,38% |
4.963.998 |
10,22% |
2.347.870 |
4,83% |
48.591.861 |
||
2057 |
2.714.938 |
5,38% |
5.254.032 |
10,41% |
2.539.094 |
5,03% |
50.462.502 |
||
2058 |
2.816.792 |
5,38% |
5.557.502 |
10,61% |
2.740.710 |
5,23% |
52.395.871 |
||
2059 |
2.921.668 |
5,37% |
5.872.266 |
10,80% |
2.950.598 |
5,42% |
54.390.089 |
||
2060 |
3.029.440 |
5,37% |
6.201.131 |
10,99% |
3.171.691 |
5,62% |
56.441.000 |
||
2061 |
3.141.894 |
5,36% |
6.549.466 |
11,18% |
3.407.572 |
5,82% |
58.571.021 |
||
2062 |
3.258.502 |
5,36% |
6.928.930 |
11,40% |
3.670.428 |
6,04% |
60.779.844 |
||
2063 |
3.379.162 |
5,36% |
7.335.619 |
11,63% |
3.956.456 |
6,27% |
63.064.969 |
||
2064 |
3.503.715 |
5,36% |
7.768.863 |
11,87% |
4.265.147 |
6,52% |
65.423.368 |
||
2065 |
3.632.014 |
5,35% |
8.191.547 |
12,07% |
4.559.533 |
6,72% |
67.852.229 |
||
2066 |
3.766.703 |
5,35% |
8.544.236 |
12,14% |
4.777.533 |
6,79% |
70.387.560 |
||
2067 |
3.906.571 |
5,35% |
8.859.428 |
12,13% |
4.952.857 |
6,78% |
73.019.393 |
||
2068 |
4.051.257 |
5,35% |
9.183.237 |
12,12% |
5.131.981 |
6,78% |
75.743.278 |
||
2069 |
4.200.463 |
5,35% |
9.514.987 |
12,11% |
5.314.524 |
6,77% |
78.556.240 |
||
2070 |
4.353.911 |
5,35% |
9.924.213 |
12,18% |
5.570.301 |
6,84% |
81.455.060 |
||
2071 |
4.515.022 |
5,34% |
10.417.030 |
12,33% |
5.902.008 |
6,99% |
84.485.534 |
||
2072 |
4.681.879 |
5,34% |
10.925.840 |
12,47% |
6.243.961 |
7,13% |
87.629.280 |
||
2073 |
4.854.318 |
5,34% |
11.454.017 |
12,60% |
6.599.699 |
7,26% |
90.884.910 |
||
2074 |
5.032.156 |
5,34% |
12.002.224 |
12,73% |
6.970.069 |
7,40% |
94.249.613 |
||
2075 |
5.214.955 |
5,34% |
12.572.257 |
12,87% |
7.357.302 |
7,53% |
97.713.411 |
||
2076 |
5.406.792 |
5,34% |
13.165.460 |
12,99% |
7.758.668 |
7,66% |
101.327.119 |
||
2077 |
5.606.300 |
5,33% |
13.782.006 |
13,11% |
8.175.706 |
7,78% |
105.087.097 |
||
2078 |
5.813.228 |
5,33% |
14.425.981 |
13,24% |
8.612.753 |
7,90% |
108.988.692 |
||
2079 |
6.026.876 |
5,33% |
15.098.495 |
13,36% |
9.071.619 |
8,03% |
113.019.425 |
||
2080 |
6.246.297 |
5,33% |
15.800.227 |
13,49% |
9.553.930 |
8,15% |
117.159.945 |
||
2081 |
6.477.945 |
5,33% |
16.531.720 |
13,61% |
10.053.775 |
8,27% |
121.500.390 |
||
2082 |
6.719.093 |
5,33% |
17.292.610 |
13,72% |
10.573.517 |
8,39% |
126.016.493 |
||
2083 |
6.968.776 |
5,33% |
18.088.729 |
13,84% |
11.119.953 |
8,51% |
130.692.071 |
||
2084 |
7.226.086 |
5,33% |
18.918.473 |
13,96% |
11.692.386 |
8,63% |
135.514.632 |
||
2085 |
7.490.292 |
5,33% |
19.780.344 |
14,08% |
12.290.052 |
8,75% |
140.474.584 |
||
2086 |
7.769.793 |
5,33% |
20.673.970 |
14,19% |
12.904.177 |
8,86% |
145.693.306 |
||
2087 |
8.060.024 |
5,33% |
21.598.993 |
14,29% |
13.538.969 |
8,96% |
151.120.131 |
||
2088 |
8.360.180 |
5,33% |
22.563.183 |
14,39% |
14.203.003 |
9,06% |
156.743.303 |
||
2089 |
8.669.437 |
5,33% |
23.564.383 |
14,50% |
14.894.946 |
9,16% |
162.552.914 |
||
2090 |
8.986.971 |
5,33% |
24.602.746 |
14,60% |
15.615.775 |
9,27% |
168.535.887 |
||
2091 |
9.322.896 |
5,33% |
25.721.315 |
14,71% |
16.398.419 |
9,38% |
174.837.668 |
||
2092 |
9.671.493 |
5,33% |
26.880.616 |
14,82% |
17.209.123 |
9,49% |
181.395.324 |
||
2093 |
10.032.460 |
5,33% |
28.089.801 |
14,93% |
18.057.342 |
9,59% |
188.202.244 |
||
2094 |
10.405.279 |
5,33% |
29.346.623 |
15,03% |
18.941.343 |
9,70% |
195.247.405 |
||
2095 |
10.788.791 |
5,33% |
30.652.205 |
15,14% |
19.863.414 |
9,81% |
202.504.098 |
||
2096 |
11.195.583 |
5,33% |
32.007.751 |
15,23% |
20.812.168 |
9,90% |
210.151.873 |
||
2097 |
11.619.838 |
5,33% |
33.408.236 |
15,32% |
21.788.398 |
9,99% |
218.133.778 |
||
2098 |
12.060.021 |
5,33% |
34.866.941 |
15,40% |
22.806.920 |
10,07% |
226.422.362 |
||
2099 |
12.513.933 |
5,33% |
36.382.021 |
15,48% |
23.868.088 |
10,16% |
234.979.500 |
||
2100 |
12.979.497 |
5,32% |
37.952.820 |
15,57% |
24.973.323 |
10,24% |
243.765.258 |
||
Fonte: SPREV/MPS. |
|||||||||
Elaboração a partir de dados da Grade de Parâmetros SPE/MF de 09/12/2022 (taxa de crescimento real do PIB, deflator e taxa de inflação INPC acumulado) para o período entre 2022 e 2026.
GOVERNO FEDERAL | |||||||
RELATÓRIO RESUMIDO DA EXECUÇÃO ORÇAMENTÁRIA | |||||||
DEMONSTRATIVO DA TABELA DE HIPÓTESES DA PROJEÇÃO DO REGIME GERAL DE PREVIDÊNCIA SOCIAL | |||||||
ORÇAMENTO DA SEGURIDADE SOCIAL | |||||||
2023 A 2100 | |||||||
Tabela 5.2 - Evolução das principais variáveis para projeção de longo prazo - 2023/2100 | |||||||
Exercício |
Taxa de Crescimento da Massa Salarial dos Contribuintes |
Taxa de Crescimento da Massa Salarial dos Ocupados |
Taxa de Crescimento Real (Vegetativa) da Despesa |
Taxa de Inflação Anual (INPC Acumulado) |
Taxa de Crescimento Real do PIB |
Taxa de Reajuste do Salário Mínimo |
Taxa de Reajuste dos Demais Benefícios |
2023 |
8,28% |
8,38% |
2,12% |
4,90% |
1,41% |
5,81% |
4,90% |
2024 |
7,26% |
7,37% |
1,03% |
3,00% |
1,84% |
4,90% |
3,00% |
2025 |
5,23% |
5,34% |
1,15% |
3,00% |
1,87% |
3,00% |
3,00% |
2026 |
5,17% |
5,28% |
1,63% |
3,00% |
1,63% |
3,05% |
3,00% |
2027 |
5,08% |
5,20% |
2,10% |
3,00% |
2,13% |
4,93% |
3,00% |
2028 |
5,01% |
5,12% |
2,05% |
3,00% |
2,06% |
4,68% |
3,00% |
2029 |
4,95% |
5,06% |
2,91% |
3,00% |
2,00% |
5,20% |
3,00% |
2030 |
4,89% |
5,01% |
2,18% |
3,00% |
1,94% |
5,12% |
3,00% |
2031 |
4,82% |
4,93% |
2,18% |
3,00% |
1,86% |
5,06% |
3,00% |
2032 |
4,77% |
4,88% |
2,88% |
3,00% |
1,82% |
5,01% |
3,00% |
2033 |
4,72% |
4,83% |
2,10% |
3,00% |
1,77% |
4,93% |
3,00% |
2034 |
4,67% |
4,78% |
2,09% |
3,00% |
1,72% |
4,88% |
3,00% |
2035 |
4,62% |
4,72% |
2,83% |
3,00% |
1,67% |
4,83% |
3,00% |
2036 |
4,56% |
4,65% |
2,08% |
3,00% |
1,60% |
4,78% |
3,00% |
2037 |
4,52% |
4,61% |
2,10% |
3,00% |
1,56% |
4,72% |
3,00% |
2038 |
4,47% |
4,56% |
2,85% |
3,00% |
1,51% |
4,65% |
3,00% |
2039 |
4,42% |
4,51% |
2,14% |
3,00% |
1,46% |
4,61% |
3,00% |
2040 |
4,36% |
4,45% |
2,13% |
3,00% |
1,40% |
4,56% |
3,00% |
2041 |
4,32% |
4,39% |
2,83% |
3,00% |
1,35% |
4,51% |
3,00% |
2042 |
4,28% |
4,35% |
2,28% |
3,00% |
1,31% |
4,45% |
3,00% |
2043 |
4,24% |
4,31% |
2,26% |
3,00% |
1,27% |
4,39% |
3,00% |
2044 |
4,20% |
4,27% |
2,72% |
3,00% |
1,23% |
4,35% |
3,00% |
2045 |
4,15% |
4,22% |
2,39% |
3,00% |
1,18% |
4,31% |
3,00% |
2046 |
4,12% |
4,17% |
2,39% |
3,00% |
1,14% |
4,27% |
3,00% |
2047 |
4,10% |
4,15% |
2,61% |
3,00% |
1,11% |
4,22% |
3,00% |
2048 |
4,07% |
4,12% |
2,39% |
3,00% |
1,08% |
4,17% |
3,00% |
2049 |
4,03% |
4,08% |
2,34% |
3,00% |
1,04% |
4,15% |
3,00% |
2050 |
3,99% |
4,04% |
2,47% |
3,00% |
1,01% |
4,12% |
3,00% |
2051 |
3,96% |
4,01% |
2,31% |
3,00% |
0,97% |
4,08% |
3,00% |
2052 |
3,94% |
3,98% |
2,18% |
3,00% |
0,95% |
4,04% |
3,00% |
2053 |
3,90% |
3,96% |
2,14% |
3,00% |
0,92% |
4,01% |
3,00% |
2054 |
3,86% |
3,92% |
2,06% |
3,00% |
0,89% |
3,98% |
3,00% |
2055 |
3,81% |
3,88% |
2,04% |
3,00% |
0,85% |
3,96% |
3,00% |
2056 |
3,80% |
3,87% |
2,77% |
3,00% |
0,84% |
3,92% |
3,00% |
2057 |
3,78% |
3,85% |
2,76% |
3,00% |
0,82% |
3,88% |
3,00% |
2058 |
3,75% |
3,83% |
2,69% |
3,00% |
0,80% |
3,87% |
3,00% |
2059 |
3,72% |
3,81% |
2,58% |
3,00% |
0,78% |
3,85% |
3,00% |
2060 |
3,69% |
3,77% |
2,52% |
3,00% |
0,74% |
3,83% |
3,00% |
2061 |
3,71% |
3,77% |
2,54% |
3,00% |
0,75% |
3,81% |
3,00% |
2062 |
3,71% |
3,77% |
2,71% |
3,00% |
0,74% |
3,77% |
3,00% |
2063 |
3,70% |
3,76% |
2,78% |
3,00% |
0,73% |
3,77% |
3,00% |
2064 |
3,69% |
3,74% |
2,82% |
3,00% |
0,71% |
3,77% |
3,00% |
2065 |
3,66% |
3,71% |
2,37% |
3,00% |
0,69% |
3,76% |
3,00% |
2066 |
3,71% |
3,74% |
1,26% |
3,00% |
0,71% |
3,74% |
3,00% |
2067 |
3,71% |
3,74% |
0,66% |
3,00% |
0,71% |
3,71% |
3,00% |
2068 |
3,70% |
3,73% |
0,63% |
3,00% |
0,70% |
3,74% |
3,00% |
2069 |
3,68% |
3,71% |
0,59% |
3,00% |
0,69% |
3,74% |
3,00% |
2070 |
3,65% |
3,69% |
1,26% |
3,00% |
0,67% |
3,73% |
3,00% |
2071 |
3,70% |
3,72% |
1,90% |
3,00% |
0,69% |
3,71% |
3,00% |
2072 |
3,70% |
3,72% |
1,82% |
3,00% |
0,70% |
3,69% |
3,00% |
2073 |
3,68% |
3,72% |
1,78% |
3,00% |
0,69% |
3,72% |
3,00% |
2074 |
3,66% |
3,70% |
1,73% |
3,00% |
0,68% |
3,72% |
3,00% |
2075 |
3,63% |
3,68% |
1,69% |
3,00% |
0,65% |
3,72% |
3,00% |
2076 |
3,68% |
3,70% |
1,66% |
3,00% |
0,67% |
3,70% |
3,00% |
2077 |
3,69% |
3,71% |
1,63% |
3,00% |
0,69% |
3,68% |
3,00% |
2078 |
3,69% |
3,71% |
1,62% |
3,00% |
0,69% |
3,70% |
3,00% |
2079 |
3,68% |
3,70% |
1,61% |
3,00% |
0,67% |
3,71% |
3,00% |
2080 |
3,64% |
3,66% |
1,60% |
3,00% |
0,64% |
3,71% |
3,00% |
2081 |
3,71% |
3,70% |
1,58% |
3,00% |
0,68% |
3,70% |
3,00% |
2082 |
3,72% |
3,72% |
1,55% |
3,00% |
0,69% |
3,66% |
3,00% |
2083 |
3,72% |
3,71% |
1,55% |
3,00% |
0,69% |
3,70% |
3,00% |
2084 |
3,69% |
3,69% |
1,54% |
3,00% |
0,67% |
3,72% |
3,00% |
2085 |
3,66% |
3,66% |
1,51% |
3,00% |
0,64% |
3,71% |
3,00% |
2086 |
3,73% |
3,72% |
1,47% |
3,00% |
0,69% |
3,69% |
3,00% |
2087 |
3,74% |
3,72% |
1,43% |
3,00% |
0,70% |
3,66% |
3,00% |
2088 |
3,72% |
3,72% |
1,42% |
3,00% |
0,70% |
3,72% |
3,00% |
2089 |
3,70% |
3,71% |
1,39% |
3,00% |
0,68% |
3,72% |
3,00% |
2090 |
3,66% |
3,68% |
1,36% |
3,00% |
0,66% |
3,72% |
3,00% |
2091 |
3,74% |
3,74% |
1,50% |
3,00% |
0,71% |
3,71% |
3,00% |
2092 |
3,74% |
3,75% |
1,46% |
3,00% |
0,72% |
3,68% |
3,00% |
2093 |
3,73% |
3,75% |
1,45% |
3,00% |
0,73% |
3,74% |
3,00% |
2094 |
3,72% |
3,74% |
1,43% |
3,00% |
0,72% |
3,75% |
3,00% |
2095 |
3,69% |
3,72% |
1,40% |
3,00% |
0,69% |
3,75% |
3,00% |
2096 |
3,77% |
3,78% |
1,38% |
3,00% |
0,75% |
3,74% |
3,00% |
2097 |
3,79% |
3,80% |
1,33% |
3,00% |
0,77% |
3,72% |
3,00% |
2098 |
3,79% |
3,80% |
1,32% |
3,00% |
0,77% |
3,78% |
3,00% |
2099 |
3,76% |
3,78% |
1,30% |
3,00% |
0,75% |
3,80% |
3,00% |
2100 |
3,72% |
3,74% |
1,27% |
3,00% |
0,71% |
3,80% |
3,00% |
Fonte: SPREV/MPS. |
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Elaboração a partir de dados da Grade de Parâmetros SPE/MF de 09/12/2022 (taxa de crescimento real do PIB, deflator e taxa de inflação INPC acumulado) para o período entre 2022 e 2026.
GOVERNO FEDERAL | |||
RELATÓRIO RESUMIDO DA EXECUÇÃO ORÇAMENTÁRIA | |||
DEMONSTRATIVO DA RECEITA DE ALIENAÇÃO DE ATIVOS E APLICAÇÃO DOS RECURSOS | |||
ORÇAMENTOS FISCAL E DA SEGURIDADE SOCIAL | |||
JANEIRO A DEZEMBRO DE 2022 | |||
RREO - Anexo 11 (LRF... |
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