Oscillations around a plateau: deaths by homicide in brazil ? 1979-2013 / Oscilações em torno de um planalto: mortes violentas por homicídio no brasil - 1979-2013
| Autor | Emilio Dellasoppa, Kaizô Beltrão |
| Cargo | Chemical Engineering from University of La Plata and a DSc in Political Sciences from Sao Paulo University. Associate Professor at Rio de Janeiro State University. Email: emiliodellasoppa@hotmail.com. - Degree in Mechanical Engineering from the Technological Aeronautical Institute (Brazilian Air Force Ministry) and a PhD in Statistics from ... |
| Páginas | 1923-1943 |
Revista de Direito da Cidade vol. 07, nº 4. Número Especial. ISSN 2317-7721
DOI: 10.12957/rdc.2015.20963
__________________________________________________________________
Revista de Direito da Cidade, vol. 07, nº 4. Número Especial. ISSN 2317-7721 pp.1 923-1943 1923
OS CI LL AT IO NS A ROU ND A PL AT EA U: D EAT HS B Y HO MI CI DE I N BR AZ IL -
OS CI LA ÇÕ ES E M TO RN O DE U M PL AN AL TO : MOR TE S VIO LE NT AS P OR HOM IC ÍD IO N O
BRA SI L - -
Em il io E De ll as op pa
1
Kai zô I Be lt rã o2
Abstract
This text focuses on the analysis on homicide/assault rates in Brazil over three decades: 1979-2013.
It disaggregates the information by area Great Regions - in Brazil and provides separate statistics
for young adults and young adult males, the most vulnerable group. Rates are calculated as the
ratio of registered deaths by causes from the Ministry of Health and the population estimated by
the Central Statistical Office - IBGE. To further enhance the comprehension of the process at a
lower ecological unit, we focused on the Southeast Region, which presented the sharpest drop.
The analysis is replicated for all four states in the Region. Results showed that some short lived
downward trends were just part of oscillations around a plateau. This plateau was the
consequence of opposing trends among the several regions/states in Brazil. Additionally, a
hypothesis raised in sociological literature, that the proportion of young adults in the population is
positively correlated with homicide rates is ruled out by our data.
Keywords: Homicide/assault Rates; Brazil; Young adult males; Demographic hypotheses; Diversity
of homicide/assault trends.
Resumo
O texto focaliza a análise das taxas de mortalidade por homicídio no Brasil durante mais de três
décadas: 1979-2013. Os dados são desagregados por área Grandes Regiões do Brasil. São
fornecidas estatísticas para os adultos jovens e homens jovens, o g rupo notoriamente mais
vulnerável. As taxas são calculadas como a razão das mortes registradas por causas pelo Ministério
da Saúde e a população estimada pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística - IBGE. Para
aprofundar a compreensão do processo a níveis ecológicos menores, focalizamos na Região
Sudeste, que apresentou a queda mais acentuada. A análise é replicada para os quatro estados da
Região. Os resultados mostram que algumas tendências de queda são apenas parte de oscilações
em torno a um platô. Este platô foi a consequência de tendências opostas entre as diferentes
regiões/estados no Brasil. Ainda, u ma hipótese levantada na literatura sociológica, de que a
proporção de adultos jovens está correlacionada positivamente com as taxas de homicídio é
invalidada pelos dados.
Palavras-chave: Taxas de homicídio; Brasil; Homens jovens; Hipótese demográfica;
Heterogeneidade de tendências de homicídios.
1 Chemical Engine ering from University of La Plata and a DSc in Political S ciences from Sao Paulo University.
Associate Professor at Rio de Janeiro State University. Email: emiliodellasoppa@hotmail.com.
2 Degree in Mechanical Engineering from the Technological Aeronautical Institute (Brazilian Air Force
Ministry) and a PhD in Statistics from Princeton University. Researcher at the Brazilian School of Public and
Private Administration/ Getulio Vargas Foundation. Email: kaizo.beltrao@fgv.br.
Revista de Direito da Cidade vol. 07, nº 4. Número Especial. ISSN 2317-7721
DOI: 10.12957/rdc.2015.20963
__________________________________________________________________
Revista de Direito da Cidade, vol. 07, nº 4. Número Especial. ISSN 2317-7721 pp.1 923-1943 1924
IN TR OD UC TI ON
Several statistics referring to the beginning of the first decade of the century indicate a
drop in violent deaths in specific areas of Brazil and for the country as a whole: years of life lost
(BELTRÃO and DELLASOPPA, 2011a, 2011b), age-specific mortality rates from health registers
(BRASIL, 2006), intentional violent crime registers (BRASIL, 2007), young adult violent deaths
(FERREIRA, 2005; WAISELFISZ, 2011) among others. Some authors include Brazil as part of an
international decline in crime rates (see TSELONI et al, 2010). Nonetheless, the subsequent years
showed that this short-lived downward trend was just part of what is now perceived as oscillations
around a plateau. The plateau for the combined crude mortality rate by homicides for both sexes
in Brazil is around 27.3 deaths per one hundred thousand population (between 1998 and 2013),
while for young adults it doubles to 54.5 (between 2000 and 2013) and for young adult males it
doubles again to 101.7 (same period).
It is worth noting, though, that these recent figures for Brazil are very high by international
standards, well above the 10 per 100 thousand level classified by the World Health Organization as
epidemic (apud PNUD, 2013). The Global Study on Homicide (UNODC, 2011c) states that the
homicide rate in Africa and the Americas (at 17 and 16 per 100,000 population, respectively) is
more than double the global average (6.9 per 100,000), whereas in Asia, Europe and Oceania
Considering countries individually,
shows the thirty highest homicide rates per 100 thousand using Criminal Justice sources
(UNODC, 2011a): countries from the Americas are denoted as red bars (Brazil in black), African
countries as blue bars and European countries in green. Among the 30 countries with the highest
rates, 23 are from the Americas, 6 from Africa and only 1 from Europe. Asian and Australia/Oceania
countries are not included among these thirty. Rankings using different international sources could
vary accordingly. Homicide rates from health organizations are usually remarkably different from
those originated from Criminal Justice sources ( see UNODC 2011b for a comparison of the two
sources). More elaborate indicators which include interpersonal violence, such as the Violent
Societies Index proposed by Karstedt (2012) consistently ranked Brazil among the thirteen
extremely violent societies during the time interval under scrutiny.
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